Bundesliga Odds, Picks and Predictions: RB Leipzig vs. Hertha Berlin (Saturday, Oct. 24)

RB Leipzig vs. Hertha Berlin Odds

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Four games into the Bundesliga season, and Bayern Munich is not in first place.

RB Leipzig hosts Hertha Berlin as they look to maintain their one-point edge over Bayern and Borussia Dortmund atop the table as 15th-place Hertha Berlin visits the Red Bull Arena.

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RB Leipzig

I entered the season with concerns about Leipzig would replace the loss of star striker Timo Werner when he left for Chelsea in July. But they’ve had no issues replicating his shots per game by committee, and the Leipzig press has looked as effective as ever in the opening matches of the 2020/21 season.

The underlying numbers on Leipzig were impressive last season, and now, they’re trading disappointing draws for wins. They’re second in pressure rate behind only Bayern, top of the Bundesliga in expected goal (xG) difference, rank first in xGA, and second in xGF.

What’s been most impressive about this Leipzig has been their complete dominance of gameplay. They’ve allowed just eight completed passes within 20 yards of their own goal in 2020, and are fresh off an easy win in the Champions League this week.

Leipzig’s biggest issue last season would be conceding too many late equalizers and turning one goal wins into draws. This year, they’ve been completely dominant when leading by one goal so far, allowing just 0.09 xG in 51 minutes.

We’re dealing with a small sample here, but it’s a sign of manager Julien Nagelsmann’s side becoming more experienced with leads. Leipzig showed an ability to get margin last year when it finished second in Bundesliga goal difference.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin have been unfortunate to pick up no points from their last three matches, but their defense has been leaking goals and chances since the end of the last Bundesliga season and there’s no reason for me to expect that to change.

Hertha is also a side that loves to press, as they rank third in passes allowed per defensive action, but they don’t handle presses nearly as well as Leipzig does. They’ve allowed three shots to seven inside their own six-yard box and haven’t been able to stop opponents’ from creating big scoring chances against them.

Hertha have allowed the fourth most expected goals in the Bundesliga thus far this season, and even though they are pressing much more to start this season, haven’t improved in their passes completed within the opponents.

Prediction

I show a small amount of value on Leipzig here, and we’ve got two teams trending in opposite directions based on both results and underlying numbers here. I’ll back Leipzig to win by multiple goals, which almost all of their wins in the 2019-20 season came by.

Leipzig have shown an ability to pile on goals against inferior competition under Nagelsmann, with 17 of their 21 Bundesliga wins in the last two seasons coming by multiple goals.

The bet: Leipzig -1.5 (+130)

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