Wolfsburg & Gladbach Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Foals in Key Bundesliga Showdown (Oct. 2)

Wolfsburg & Gladbach Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Foals in Key Bundesliga Showdown (Oct. 2) article feature image
Credit:

Christian Verheyen/Borussia Moenchengladbach via Getty Images. Pictured: Louis Jordan Beyer (left), Breel Embolo (center) and Denis Zakaria.

  • Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach square off in Saturday's crucial Bundesliga match.
  • The Foals are coming off a big 1-0 victory against powerful Borussia Dortmund last time out.
  • Anthony Dabbundo explains below how he's backing Gladbach to pick up another solid result.

Wolfsburg vs. Gladbach Odds

Wolfsburg Odds +115
Gladbach Odds +250
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach have had opposite starts to the season under their new managers, but Saturday’s clash is still a critical one for potential top-four and European implications later in the season.

The Wolves only have one point from their last two Bundesliga matches after starting with four consecutive victories and sitting atop the table for the first four weeks of the season.

Meanwhile, the Foals haven’t taken a single point away from home under new manager Adi Hütter, but the performances have been much better than the results suggest and they’ve got a couple key players back from injury.

Wolfsburg has beaten up on a pretty weak Bundesliga schedule thus far, having played only one team expected to be in the European places come the end of the season. They’ve been overrated since their hot start to the Bundesliga season and continue to be overrated based on my projections that make them +145 here.

Wolfsburg Look to Bounce Back from Poor Results

The regression was always coming for Wolfsburg after its start to the Bundesliga season, given how they scraped by with mediocre attacking displays and overall performances.

The Wolves won four straight to begin the Bundesliga season against Bochum, Greuther Fürth, Hertha Berlin and RB Leipzig. The first three might just be the three worst teams in the Bundesliga and the Wolves were lucky to beat a Leipzig side that has massively underachieved expectations this season.

Following the international break, Wolfsburg stole a tie against Lille in the Champions League, tied Frankfurt and lost to Hoffenheim. Injuries to the midfield don’t have manager Mark van Bommel’s side firing particularly well and the underlying numbers in attack are very middling.

Wolfsburg is ninth in shots per game and fifth in overall shot quality, measured by xG per shot. As good as the Wolves defense is with the second-fewest shots allowed per 90 minutes and the fourth-lowest shot quality allowed, they’ve only faced two offenses that rank inside the top 12 in xG created.

In those two games, Wolfsburg conceded 1.4 xGA to Leipzig and 1.6 to Hoffenheim. The Wolves will not have John Brooks in the center of defense or midfielder Xaver Schlager, a pressing machine in the middle of the park.

Gladbach Due for More Goals

Gladbach picked up its first big win of the season against Dortmund at Borussia Park last Saturday, picking up a key 1-0 home victory. The Foals were the better side for most of the first half, grabbed a deserved goal and then killed off the game once Mahmoud Dahoud picked up a red card for Dortmund.

Gladbach’s results away from home have been much worse than at home, but the performances have been mostly fine. Gladbach had a positive xGDiff away from home in games against Bayer Leverkusen, Augsburg and Union Berlin, but lost all three matches and was outscored, 7-1, in those contests.

Missed penalties, controversial VAR decisions and poor finishing in front of goal have all contributed to the poor results. The Foals are boosted by the return of Breel Embolo to the front line, a fully fit Denis Zakaria to the midfield and Jonas Hoffman as an attacking midfielder. It’s no surprise their best performance of the season came with all three in the side.

Even without a couple key starters in Marcus Thuram and Stefan Lainer, the Foals are as healthy as they’ve been all season.

Gladbach ranks inside the top four in passes into the penalty area, touches in the attacking third and penalty area and has a better attack than Wolfsburg by almost every statistical metric. Gladbach has more expected goals even though they’ve only converted six goals from 10.1 xG.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

My power ratings have these sides as the fourth- and fifth- best Bundesliga teams, behind Bayern Munich, Dortmund and Leipzig. Wolfsburg is only a smidge better at home, which gets their three-way moneyline projection to +150 for this match.

Gladbach is -150 to get a point from this match from the projection. Its offense is much better than Wolfsburg’s and I’m not totally buying into the Wolves defensive early-season numbers given the low quality of opponents they built that record on.

Gladbach’s offensive finishing should positively regress given their early season blip, and the Foals should be lined closer to even in this matchup.

Anything -140 or better on the Foals to grab at least a point away from here is good to play.

Pick: Gladbach +0.5 (-140 or better)

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