Bundesliga Odds & Picks: Best Bets For Dortmund vs Wolfsburg & More
Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Felix Nmecha.
The top of the Bundesliga table is jam packed with six teams within a point of one another between first placed Bayer Leverkusen on 10 points and sixth placed Wolfsburg on nine entering match week 5. The headliner in the entire slate is Borussia Dortmund's home matchup with Wolfsburg on Saturday, while RB Leipzig visit Borussia Monchengladbach as the Foals still look for their first win of the new campaign.
Six teams remain without a win, including Gladbach, Mainz and Köln, who are more often found in the top half of the German table.
Here are my three best bets for match week 5:
Bundesliga Odds & Picks
| Union Berlin Odds | +105 |
| Hoffenheim Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +110 |
Union Berlin have been one of the most efficient finishing groups in all of Europe for the last 1.5 seasons. Union finished in the top four despite featuring one of the worst attacks in the Bundesliga last year because no team converted a higher percentage of chances into goals. On one hand, that level of finishing cannot last forever and is absolutely bound to regress. However, Union have made moves in the offseason to improve the attacking output, an admission that the club is well aware of the precarious nature of its goal scoring production.
Union finished north of 1.3 xG in three of their four league matches and the only match they came up short was against RB Leipzig, a top defense that played with an extra man for the final third of the match.
The German side also finished as the best defense in Germany by goals allowed, tied with Bayern last year. As much as I respect Urs Fischer's defensive organization and system, there's a limit to how good a team can be defensively when it gets the field tilted on them that heavily. I think the market is too low on the Union attack and too high on the Union defense because of last year's extreme data.
Hoffenheim's defense has fallen off a cliff since January and hasn't really recovered. While the attack remains solid and consistent in its production, the switch to a more pressing heavy approach has left them more exposed on the back end and made their matches more high event.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-130 or better)
| Borussia Dortmund Odds | -137 |
| Wolfsburg Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
The market steamed toward Dortmund in their Champions League match against PSG on Tuesday. PSG drifted from a -170 moneyline favorite before closing at -130. The French side had a comfortable and controlled 2-0 victory at home, and now the market sentiment has flipped and is steaming against Dortmund domestically. The line was Dortmund -165 a few days ago and is now down to -137 at bet365.
Any value in backing Wolfsburg has been bet out of the number, but that doesn't mean the top match in Germany doesn't offer betting value.
Wolfsburg's defense has taken a real step back since losing Mickey van de Ven in the offseason to Spurs. Niko Kovac has never been known for his defensive mettle as a manager and Wolfsburg have conceded 1.34 xGA per match despite playing three mediocre attacking sides in the Bundesliga.
Dortmund have had similar defensive issues. I know that PSG only scored once from open play, but that had more to do with poor games from Kylian Mbappé and Randal Kolo Muani than anything Dortmund did defensively.
PSG had no problem passing the ball through Dortmund and Wolfsburg's attack has put up some quality ball progression numbers thus far. The problem for Dortmund is ball stopping in midfield. The attack will be fine for Dortmund, but the defense is middle of the league in attacking penalty area touches allowed despite a weak schedule.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+104)
| Augsburg Odds | +155 |
| Mainz Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -152 / +126 |
Neither Mainz nor Augsburg have found a win yet in the new Bundesliga season. Mainz have had major issues creating chances from open play as they've only finished with more than one non-penalty xG in one of their first four Bundesliga matches.
The underlying process of getting the ball into the penalty does lead to more cause for optimism going forward. They are top six in the league in attacking penalty area touches and have gotten the league's worst goalkeeper play from a shot stopping perspective thus far.
You can't just throw out Mainz's poor start to the season, but we've seen Mainz start slow before under Bo Svensson and then turn it around. Augsburg are still priced as one of the league's worst teams for me, and Mainz's talent and historical defensive solidity suggests they should be favored here.
Mainz won just two of eight to begin the 2021-22 season before finishing just outside the European places. Mainz are sixth in pass into the penalty area and top five in passes allowed into the box. They've fallen behind early a bunch, which does influence the numbers, but they have a positive xG difference when playing in even game states this season.
I'd bet on a Mainz bounce back and improvement before I'd bet on Augsburg to improve from their relegation level form.
Pick: Mainz – Draw No Bet (-115 or better)
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