Burnley vs Luton Town Odds, Prediction | Premier League Match Preview

Vincent Kompany and Burnley will be hosting Luton Town in a relegation six pointer this Friday at Turf Moor. This match is sure to have massive implications at the bottom of the table, regardless of the result.

Burnley currently sit 19^th in the Premier League, four points behind Luton. They are coming off three consecutive losses across all competitions, with the most recent being a 1-0 loss against Tottenham in the third round of the FA Cup.

Luton currently sit 18^th in the league, with a chance to jump out of the relegation zone with a result in this one. Luton are coming off a goalless draw at home against Bolton in the FA Cup third round matchup.

 Let’s get into how to bet Burnley vs Luton Town.

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Burnley have really struggled this season, winning just five of their 24 matches in all competitions. They have lost four of their five matches and have lost their xG battle in each of the last six matches. Kompany has not been able to play the way he wants to with this group of players, and everything about their season so far has shown that.

Burnley have conceded 41 goals in their 20 league matches so far, the second-highest mark in the league. They have scored just 20 goals this season, the second-lowest in the league. And in their 10 matches at Turf Moor, they have picked up just three points. This year has been a disaster and Kompany has put himself in a really tough situation tactically.

He wants to play the possession based brand of football that worked so well last season in the Championship. Kompany has engrained that style into these players as that is all they know with Kompany in charge. This obviously hasn’t worked and has forced them to pivot to a more defensive, conservative style of play. They have been slightly better defensively as a result of this, but are still not able to create many chances going forward.

The Clarets have not produced an xG of more than 1.8 in a single match this season. They have only put up more than 1 xG in just eight of their 24 matches in all competitions. This is nowhere near the level which they would need to stay in the Premier League.

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Luton have been one of the pleasant surprises in the Premier League this season. Their expectations were so low as no one expected them to be playing top-flight football this season, yet they currently sit on 15 points, just one  point below 17^th-place Everton. However, when you look at some of the underlying metrics for this side, they have been extremely fortunate to come out with some of the results they have.

Defensively, this side has serious issues. In all competitions this year, they have conceded less than 1 xG just twice. In comparison, they have conceded more than 3 xG twice as well. If their goalkeeper, Thomas Kaminski, hadn’t been one of the most efficient keepers in the league, this Luton side could very well be bottom of the league. He has saved just a touch over 4 expected goals so far this season, the fourth-highest mark in the league.

There have been a lot of positives as well during this season, especially the midfield of this Luton side. The duo of Barkley and Lokonga has been borderline elite in the matches they have played together. Luton are set up where both of them are able to sit a bit deeper and then carry the ball forward when they win it in the midfield third. This is why they were running the show against both Sheffield United and Chelsea in consecutive weeks. With a better backline and a more clinical finisher up front, this Luton side could have a chance of staying in the Premier League this season.

This match will have massive implications on the bottom of the Premier League table. A Luton win would see them potentially climb out of the bottom three, while a Burnley win would have them just one point behind Luton.

Both sides will be desperate to get a result, but I just cannot put money on this Burnley side seeing how poor they have been this season, especially at Turf Moor. Instead, I will be taking Luton double chance at -120.

My model has a slight edge on Luton Town in this match and I cannot trust this Burnley side to get any sort of result.