Carabao Cup Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Chelsea vs. Tottenham EFL Cup Semifinal Preview (Jan. 5)
Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea standout Christian Pulisic.
- Chelsea and Tottenham square off in Wednesday's Carabao Cup semifinal at Stamford Bridge.
- The Blues (-110 favorites on the moneyline) have held their edge, but heavy action has come in on the under when it comes to the total.
- Check out below why Nick Hennion is all over this match not reaching three goals.
Chelsea vs. Spurs Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+105 / -145)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
In the first EFL Cup semifinal, Chelsea and Tottenham will kick off the first of two legs Wednesday at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea has survived two penalty shootouts to get to this point, but eased out Brentford via a 2-0 quarterfinal victory. Meanwhile, Tottenham escaped with a home win against West Ham United to reach this point after getting past Wolves and Burnley in the prior rounds.
This meeting will mark the second head-to-head matchup between the clubs this season. Chelsea came out on top via a 3-0 shutout in September. However, this will be the first game for Spurs under manager Antonio Conte, who is unbeaten since taking over for ex-manager Nuno Espírito Santo.
As far as past Carabao Cup meetings are concerned, Tottenham has won two consecutive home matches, but Chelsea advanced on penalties in its previous two-leg encounter.
Offense Has Been Humming for Chelsea
Despite needing to survive penalty shootouts against Aston Villa and Southampton in the third and fourth round, Chelsea has been positively brilliant on the offensive side of the pitch.
Through three matches, the Blues have generated no fewer than 2.09 expected goals and are due for some positive regression on the offensive end. In those three fixtures, Chelsea has produced four goals on 7.16 xG, per footystats.org.
That said, Chelsea’s normally trustworthy defense is due for some negative regression based on their League Cup concessions. Through three matches, manager Thomas Tuchel’s side has conceded only twice, but on 4.06 xGA, according to footystats.org.
The other potential concern for Chelsea is its injury woes on defense. Both of Tuchel’s starting wing backs — Ben Chilwell and Reece James — remain out for this fixture, while Andreas Christensen and Timo Werner will also be sidelined.
Plus, starting goalkeeper Edouard Mendy has departed for the Africa Cup of Nations, which means backup Kepa will get the nod in this meeting.
Lastly, the Blues haven’t produced the greatest run of form at home of late. It has drawn three consecutive games and four of its last five Premier League home fixtures. On top of that, they only have two wins against six draws in their last eight at home across all competitions.
However, Chelsea has historically dominated Tottenham at Stamford Bridge. It’s unbeaten in four in a row against Spurs (three wins; one draw) and has only posted one outright defeat in its last eight head-to-head games on home soil.
Spurs Almost Perfect Under Conte
Since Conte took over at Tottenham, the club has produced a spectacular run of form.
A road Europa Conference League loss is the only blemish on an otherwise flawless resume for Spurs with Conte in charge. They’re unbeaten in their last nine in England, including that 2-1 victory over West Ham United in the League Cup quarterfinals, and have recorded five clean sheets in the process.
Plus, there are generally positive metrics for Tottenham in the EFL Cup, a competition in which it has never trailed once through three matches. Spurs have scored five goals on 4.16 xG and has conceded three goals on 4.19 xGA, per footystats.org.
However, the concern with Tottenham lies in the fact it lost on xG against West Ham by a 1.97-1.29 margin and hasn’t produced the best road record against its fellow Super League sides. Across their last 11 meetings with the Big Six in all competitions, Spurs has only produced one outright victory.
Additionally, Spurs has lost two of their last three League Cup meetings against Chelsea on xG and, as mentioned earlier, doesn’t hold the best record at Stamford Bridge.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’m holding out on picking a side here until lineups come out, mainly because I want to see what the Tottenham front three looks like.
If Conte rolls out Harry Kane, Lucas Moura and Son Heung-min, I’d take a good look at Spurs +0.5 goal at -125 or better. Additionally, I will like that even more if Romelu Lukaku isn’t involved for Chelsea.
However, where I do see pregame value in this match is with the total. Both sides are emerging from EPL fixtures that (likely) will have tired them out. Chelsea’s match against Liverpool played at a high tempo, while Spurs spent a good chunk of their last fixture against Watford desperately trying to break them down and find a winning goal.
Additionally, Spurs’ defense is playing well at the moment, having conceded only 0.9 xGA in their last three fixtures. That said, Tottenham has failed to generate more than one xG in seven consecutive games against Chelsea.
Expect a low-scoring contest at Stamford Bridge and for both sides to give itself a chance at advancing in the reverse leg at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-115)