Celta Vigo vs Mallorca Odds, Pick: Monday La Liga Game Has Betting Value

Celta Vigo vs Mallorca Odds, Pick: Monday La Liga Game Has Betting Value article feature image

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Celta Vigo vs Mallorca Odds

Mon, Apr. 17
3 p.m. ET

Celta Vigo Odds


Mallorca Odds

Over/Under2.5 (+160 / -200)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+140 / -180)
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Closing out this week’s slate in La Liga, Celta Vigo look to stay hot with a victory over Mallorca at the Estadio de Balaídos on Monday.

The hosts have climbed the table following a change in manager, entering this match in 10th on 36 points.

Meanwhile, the visitors have struggled in trips off the island, but they are still comfortably mid-table and outside of the relegation zone in 12th.

I really like how the home side has played recently, and I expect them to put on another good performance in this fixture.

Celta Vigo Thriving on Quality Metrics

At the beginning of November, Celta Vigo made the switch at manager, bringing in Carlos Carvalhal to lead the club. The team had lost six of their last eight and only had three victories in the league before his arrival.

However, the form has completely flipped in the new year, especially over the last 10 games. Only Barcelona and Atlético Madrid have picked up more points over this stretch than Celta Vigo.

Carvalhal’s squad has only lost once during this run, which includes a seven-match unbeaten run heading into this fixture.

The advanced metrics also back up the great form. Vigo has posted a +3.4 xGDiff at home over the last 10 matches, according to fbref.com.

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Mallorca Reeling in Key Time

Unfortunately, Mallorca’s form has been the opposite of their opponents, with only three clubs having fewer points over the last 10 games.

Over this difficult period, manager Javier Aguierre’s team has just two wins, with none of those coming over the last six in La Liga.

The struggles have been magnified away from home, where Mallorca have allowed 1.46 xG and two big chances per match to go with a -5.7 xGDiff on the road since the World Cup break.

In fact, opponents have scored multiple times in 5-of-7 away from the island during this stretch for an average of 1.86 goals per 90 minutes.

Celta Vigo vs Mallorca Pick

I was hoping to get a good price to back the home team here, but the books have caught up with the current forms of both clubs. However, I do see another way of getting on Celta's side here.

With that said, I like Celta Vigo to fly over their team total of 1.5 goals at +136 odds as my best bet.

I touched on the Mallorca's defensive struggles away from home, but I also believe there needs to be more respect for how Carvahal has transformed the Vigo attack.

Since the World Cup break, Carvahal’s team has averaged 1.73 xG and three big scoring chances per match at home. This same bet has also cashed in the last three against bottom 10 sides.

To make matters worse for the visitors, key defenders Jaume Costa and José Copete are both suspended for this game, which should only help the hosts.

If your sportsbook offers alternate totals, I also like this game to go over the total of 2 goals, and I don’t hate a look at more than 2.5 goals at anything over +170.

I would be counting on Celta Vigo to chip in multiple goals for those bets, so I’ll stick with backing the in-form home side as my favorite play on the board.

Pick: Celta Vigo over 1.5 (+136)

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