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FC Porto vs. Marseille Odds, Picks, Predictions for Champions League (Tuesday, Nov. 3)

FC Porto vs. Marseille Odds, Picks, Predictions for Champions League (Tuesday, Nov. 3) article feature image

Jose Manuel Alvarez/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Sergio Oliveira, left, and Pepe of FC Porto.

  • Porto is a favorite over Marseille in Tuesday Champions League action, with the total at 2.5.
  • Jeremy Pond is backing the Portuguese side to emerge victorious, and the game to stay under.
  • Get his full breakdown for this UCL group play match below.

Porto vs. Marseille Odds

Porto Odds -121 [BET NOW]
Marseille Odds +350 [BET NOW]
Draw +260 [BET NOW
Over/Under 2.5 (+112/-137)
Time 3 p.m. ET
TV CBS All Access | fuboTV

Odds updated as of Monday at 2 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Clubs going in opposite Champions League directions go at it Tuesday when FC Porto hosts Marseille in Group C action.

Porto notched a 2-0 win against Greek club Olympiacos in its last group contest. Similar fortune was not in the cards for Marseille, which dropped its second consecutive UCL match in a 3-0 drubbing against English giant Manchester City.

Those performances led to Porto earning a share of second on the group table with Olympiacos. As for Marseille, the club is stuck in last place on zero points.

This is a huge fixture for both clubs, so let’s see how things shape up heading into this matchup:


The Portuguese giant has endured a bit of a mixed bag of results, going 2-2-1 in its most recent games across all competitions. However, the Dragons have won two of their last three fixtures, including that big home win against Olympiacos at Estádio do Dragão.

Sergio Oliveira and Fabio Vieria struck for goals in that Olympiacos victory that gave the club its first win of the group stage. Oliveira and his teammates clearly have their focus on second in the group, with the realization that Manchester City is going to roll to the knockout round on top of the quartet.

A victory here against a Marseille side that’s struggled as of late would do wonders for its chances of advancing with the Cityzens.

Looking at the statistical data, Porto sits at the bottom of the Group x quartet. The club has a minuscule 1.9 expected goals and brutal 2.8 expected goals against, yielding a -0.9 xGDiff and -0.45 xGDiff/90 minutes. Simply put, those numbers are just not going to get it done in this competition.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Things haven’t been pretty for the Ligue One side after getting blanked in both of its previous UCL meetings. To describe the Marseille offense as stagnant would be an understatement.

The French club’s brutal showing against Manchester City, which was low-lighted by its 0.0 xG effort for the match, proved it must do a 180-degree turn if it has any chance of escaping the group stage.

Marseille’s defense has been no better over the course of its recent appearances at this elite European tournament. The Phocaeans have conceded at least two goals in 10 of their last 11 UCL matches.

When comparing Marseille’s data with Porto, you could probably imagine that the Dutch side is far ahead of its counterpart. Marseille boasts 0.9 expected goals and brutal 3.1 expected goals against, yielding a -2.2 xGDiff and -1.10 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Porto-Marseille Picks

This comes down to who’s playing better and, simply, the stronger club at this time. And that’s Porto.

Marseille has been idle since that Manchester City defeat due to a COVID-19 situation surrounding the club prior to its game with Lens. Suffice it to say, that doesn’t bode well for a team that was out of form at this level .

Throw in the fact Marseille has lost 11 consecutive UCL matches and you have to like your chances backing the host side. Look for Porto to get the job done in a defensive-minded affair and bag all three points.

Picks: Porto ML (-121); Total Under 2.5 Goals (-137)

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