Atlético Madrid vs. Bayern Munich Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Dec. 1)
Tom Weller/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): Leon Goretzka, Douglas Costa, Thomas Müller and Leroy Sane of Bayern Munich.
- Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich face off in Champions League action Tuesday.
- The German side has little to play for and enters this match as a rare underdog.
- Brad Cunnignham previews the matchup, including why Bayern has value despite resting players.
Atlético Madrid vs. Bayern Munich Odds
|Atlético Madrid odds||-114 [BET NOW]|
|Bayern Munich odds||+265 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+310 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access|
Atlético Madrid looks to enact some revenge on Tuesday at home against the German Champions. They were embarrassed in Munich the last time these two teams met as Bayern blanked them 4-0.
However, that has been Atlético Madrid’s only loss of the 2020-21 campaign, as they sit second place in the La Liga table.
With a win and a Lokomotiv Moscow draw or loss against Salzburg, Atlético can punch its ticket to the knockout stage. Bayern Munich on the other hand is a perfect 4-0-0 in group play and has already secured the top spot in Group A.
Since the match does not matter for Bayern Munich, manager Hansi Flick has already said that a few key players will be rested.
— FC Bayern English (@FCBayernEN) November 30, 2020
This is probably the only time this year you are ever going to see Bayern Munich as an underdog, so it’ll be interesting to see how much stock the Bundesliga champions put into this match.
The last time these two teams met, Bayern Munich dismantled Diego Simeone’s elite defense. Simeone values achieving defensive perfection over a high-powered attack. For years, “Los Colchoneros” have been Europe’s most difficult defense to break down.
Keeping eight players behind the ball, Atlético create a defensive wall that works in unison to deny the opposing team space to play through the center or between the lines. This forces opponents to play through the wide areas to access the penalty area.
Dating back the restart in June, Atlético have allowed just 0.88 xGA per 90 minutes in their patented 4-4-2 last season. In fact, they’ve been so good that their xGA is the best mark across Europe’s five major leagues.
Although Atlético is one of the best defensive teams in the world, they could be down three attacking players as Luis Suarez, Diego Costa and Hector Herrera all are questionable to face Bayern Munich.
Bayern has been on cruise control in the Bundesliga and in Champions League play this season. They are averaging 2.46 xGF per match in all competitions this season, which is the highest mark across Europe’s major five leagues. The last time they met Atletico, it was an absolute slaughter. Bayern won the match 4-0 and won the expected goals battle 2.80 to 0.41.
Bayern has lost just one match since the restart last season and I don’t think it’s going to just roll over and let Atlético beat it Tuesday. It’s going to be missing a few key players, but 70% of its starting XI traveled to Spain. Therefore, I think this is a fantastic value opportunity to grab the best team in the world as underdog.
Projections and Pick
This is a once in a season opportunity to grab the best team in the world as underdogs. I understand that this match means absolutely nothing, but Bayern historically is not a club that just throws in the towel once they’ve achieved their goal, as evidenced by their Champions League run last year.
I’ll take the German champion spread of +0.5 at -108 (DraftKings) and would play it up to -120.
Pick: Bayern Munich +0.5 (-108)