Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions for Rennes vs. Chelsea (Tuesday, Nov. 24)
Matt Dunham/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Timo Werner
- Chelsea is one of the hottest teams in European soccer. The Blues have won five matches in a row and rank second in expected goal differential in the Premier League.
- Chelsea are odds-on favorites to beat Rennes on the road in Tuesday's Champions League match and BJ Cunningham sees no reason to expect a much different result from their last meeting which ended in a 3-0 win for Chelsea.
Rennes vs. Chelsea Odds
|Rennes odds||+525 [Bet Now]|
|Chelsea odds||-200 [Bet Now]|
|Draw||+350 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-150/+120) [Bet Now]|
|Time||Tuesday, 12:55 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CBS All-Access|
All of a sudden Frank Lampard’s Chelsea are one of the hottest teams in Europe. The Blues have won five straight matches in all competitions. Chelsea have outscored their opponents, 16-1, in those five contests, including a 3-0 win over Rennes three weeks ago.
The Blues currently sit atop Group E and are eyeing a date with Sevilla on Dec. 2, which will most likely determine the winner of the group.
Rennes, on the other hand, are in quite a poor run of form. The French side has won just once in its last nine matches and has lost five of their last six contests. The low point came at home last Friday when they fell, 1-0, at home to Bordeaux in a match that they completely dominated.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Rennes were really fortunate to finish in third place of Ligue 1 last season. Based on expected points, Les Rennais should have finished with around 41 points instead of the 50 that they actually accumulated.
This season has been a different story. Rennes have endured some poor luck and sit in seventh place in Ligue 1 despite having the third-best expected goal differential in France’s top flight.
That said, Rennes have really struggled against stronger sides in the Champions League. Les Rennais were only able to muster a total of 0.69 total expected goals in their losses to Chelsea and Sevilla. Both matches unsurprisingly ended in a shutout loss for Rennes.
Rennes is loaded with young talent, including wunderkind central midfielder Eduardo Camavinga. The 18-year-old already has already started for the French National Tram and is being courted by every major club in Europe. He will need to be on song if Rennes want to stay in this match.
The Blues are starting to round into form. Chelsea splashed a lot of cash around the transfer market this summer, bringing in Timo Werner (RB Leipzig), Hakim Ziyech (Ajax), Ben Chilwell (Leicester) and Kai Havertz (Leverkusen). The moves look like they are going to pay off as the Blues have the second-best expected goal differential in the Premier League.
If Chelsea are going to challenge for the Champions League title, it’s going to be because of their offense. Since the restart last season, the Blues are averaging the second-most xG per match in the Premier League at 1.96.
The biggest change for Chelsea this season from last has been their play between the posts. The Blues finally stabilized their goalkeeping situation by bringing in Eduardo Mendy from Rennes and the team responded by recording six clean sheets in their last seven matches. In fact, Chelsea has not conceded a goal so far in Champions League play.
Projections and Pick
Rennes showed no ability of slowing down Chelsea three weeks ago and I don’t know if they have the talent or tactics to shut down a team as hot as Chelsea at the moment.
I’ll back the Blues spread of -1 at +123, but I wouldn’t play it any lower than that number.
Pick: Chelsea -1 (+123 or better)