European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals For This Week’s Champions League Matches (Nov. 24-25)
Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe.
After the international break and a weekend of Domestic action, the Champions League returns this week with rematches of the last round of action. Here is what we saw the last time the Champions League was in play:
- RB Leipzig beat an injury-riddled PSG, 2-1, at home to move into second place in Group H.
- Manchester United were upset on the road at Istanbul Basakehir, 2-1.
- Liverpool routed Atalanta, 5-0, behind a Diogo Jota hat trick.
- Real Madrid’s Rodrygo scored an 80th-minute winner to secure a 3-2 win at home against Inter Milan.
- German clubs Bayern Munich and Borussia Monchengladbach both hung six goals on the road to secure victories.
- Down to 10 men, Sevilla were still able to erase a two-goal deficit against Krasnodar.
If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.
For the Champions League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on Transfer Market. That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.
You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.
Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI:
Notes for Tuesday’s Matches:
- RB Leipzig vs. PSG: The French champions will try and enact some revenge from the 2-1 loss when these two met 20 days ago. Neymar and Kylian Mbappe were injured for the last match between these two teams, so PSG should have a better showing on Tuesday. This will be the third time these two teams have met in a little over three months, with PSG winning, 3-0, in last season’s Champions League semifinal. Leipzig drew with Frankfurt in the Bundesliga on Saturday, while PSG lost on the road at Monaco in Ligue 1 action on Friday.
Tuesday’s Injury News:
- Zenit: Wendel (CM) and Vyacheslav Kaeavaev (RB) are doubtful to face Lazio, and Sardar Azmoun (ST) and Magomed Ozdoev (RM) are questionable.
- Lazio: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (CM), Luis Felipe (CB) and Thomas Strakosha (GK) are all questionable to face Zenit.
- Chelsea: Christian Pulisic (RM) and Kai Havertz (CAM) are both questionable to face Rennes.
- Manchester United: Luke Shaw (LB) is out against Istanbul Basakeshir, and Paul Pogba (CM) and Mason Greenwood (RW) are both questionable.
- Istanbul Basakeshir: Mert Gunok (GK) is questionable to face Manchester United.
- Rennes: Daniele Rugani (CB), Faitout Maouassa (LB), and Dalbert (LB) are all out against Chelsea.
- PSG: Idrissa Gueye (CM), Julian Draxler (CAM), Mauro Icardi (ST) and Juan Bernat (LB) are all out versus RB Leipzig.
- Dynamo Kiev: The club is currently dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak and could be without nine first-team players against Barcelona.
- Barcelona: Lionel Messi (CF), Frankie de Jong (CM),, Samuel Umtiti (CB), Gerard Pique (CB), Ansu Fati (LW) and Sergi Roberto (RB) are all out vs. Dynamo Kiev.
- Juventus: Frederico Chiesa (LWB), Aaron Ramsey (CAM), Giorgio Chiellini (CB), and Leonardo Bonucci (CB) are all questionable to face Ferencvaros.
- Krasnodar: Sergey Petrov (RB) is out against Sevilla and Matvey Safonov (GK) is questionable.
- Sevilla: Jesus Navas (RB) is out against Krasnodar.
Notes for Wednesday’s matches:
- Atalanta vs. Liverpool: Liverpool routed Atalanta in Italy three weeks ago, 5-0. However, Liverpool will potentially be without the services of half their regular starting XI. If you like goals, this is the match for you. Atalanta was the highest-scoring team in Europe last season at 2.58 goals per match and is averaging 2.17 xG this season. Liverpool, on the other hand, is averaging 2.36 xGF per match so far this season.
- Real Madrid vs. Inter Milan: Los Blancos almost blew a two-goal lead against Inter before Rodrygo’s late winner. Both teams need all three points from this match, as they are behind Borussia Monchengladbach and Shakhtar Donetsk, respectively, in Group B.
Wednesday’s Injury News:
- Lokomotiv Moscow: Fedor Smolov (ST), Mikhail Lysov (CB) and Dmitri Barinov (CM) are all out against Atletico Madrid.
- Atletico Madrid: Luis Suarez (ST) and Sime Vrsaljko (RB) are out against Lokomotiv Moscow, and Hector Herrera (CM) is questionable.
- Shakhtar Donetsk: Dentinho (CF) and Yevhen Konoplyanka (LW) are questionable to play against Borussia Monchengladbach.
- Borussia Monchengladbach: Alassane Plea (ST) and Jonas Hofman (RM) are questionable to play against Shakhtar.
- Liverpool: Virgil van Dijk (CB) and Jordan Henderson (CM) are out against Atalanta. Thiago (CM), Trent Alexander-Arnold (CM), Mohamed Salah (RW), and Joe Gomez (CB) are questionable.
- Manchester City: Fernandinho (CM) and Benjamin Mendy (LB) are out against Olympiacos.
- Bayern Munich: Alponso Davies (LB), Joshua Kimmich (CM), and Lucas Hernandez (RB) are out against Salzburg.
- Salzburg: Patson Daka (ST) is out against Bayern Munich.
- Real Madrid: Sergio Ramos (CB) is out against Inter.
- Mitdjylland: Evander (CAM) is questionable to face Ajax.
- Porto: Pepe (CB) is questionable to face Marseille.