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Manchester City vs. Atlético Madrid Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Has Value in Tuesday UCL Clash

Manchester City vs. Atlético Madrid Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Has Value in Tuesday UCL Clash article feature image
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Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Riyad Mahrez, second from left, celebrates with teammates.

  • Manchester City is a huge favorite over Atlético Madrid in Tuesday's Champions League quarterfinal meeting, with the total set at 2.5.
  • Nick Hennion is betting that total, counting on Man City's stellar defensive form in EPL play to translate to the Champions League. It helps that the always-stingy Atlético will likely play conservative and look to not play itself out of the tournament in the first leg.
  • Get his full preview and pick for Man City vs. Atlético below.

Man City vs. Atlético Odds

Man City Odds -300
Atlético Madrid Odds +825
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +100)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Atlético Madrid looks to knock off its second consecutive Mancunian opponent Tuesday when it takes on Manchester City in the Champions League quarterfinal round at Etihad Stadium.

Manager Diego Simeone’s squad reached the final eight of the competition after eliminating Manchester United in Round of 16 action, while Manchester City cruised past Sporting in the previous round thanks to a 5-0 road victory in the opening leg of their tie.

This matchup will mark the first head-to-head meeting between former UCL finalists, which is the only tie of the four confrontations where the teams have no previous meetings.

Powerhouse Man City Firing on All Cylinders

Manchester City has produced a dominant run of results in the Champions League, emphasized by its thrashing of Sporting.

Entering the quarterfinals, manager Pep Guardiola’s side owns the second-best expected goal differential in the tournament, has won all eight fixtures on xG and created the second-most big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

At home, City’s offensive outputs have been incredibly impressive. The Cityzens have notched at least 1.5 xG in all four contests at the Etihad, including 3.6 in its last two such games at Sporting and Paris Saint-Germain.

It’s also worth noting that City hasn’t lost at home in a European competition in the last 3.5 years. Across its previous 10 Champions League fixtures, the Cityzens have posted a 9-0-1 (W-L-D) record. Expand the data set to the last 16 such matches and bettors will find City owns a 14-0-2 (W-L-D) overall.

The final scary element associated with this City side? It could be in for some positive offensive regression soon. Across its last five EPL/UCL combined fixtures, the Cityzens have scored seven goals on nearly 12 xG overall. Further, the last time City was held at less than one xG was on Jan. 15 against Chelsea.

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Defensive Prowess Still Trademark for Atlético Madrid

The pesky Atlético defense continues to be problematic in the Champions League, further supported by its performance against Manchester United.

Los Colchoneros conceded only 1.5 xG and two big scoring chances across both legs to City’s neighbors, despite giving up north of 60 percent possession.

That victory also extended a positive run of form for Atlético against Premier League sides in continental competitions. Across its last seven two-leg ties against English foes, Atlético has advanced in six of them, with last season’s exit against Chelsea the only blemish.

Plus, Atlético’s brand of soccer has traveled quite well in the UCL play. All three of its victories in the competition thus far have come away from Wanda Metropolitano Stadium. That said, it did drop all three points at Liverpool in the group stage, which is the side closest to Manchester City in terms of quality.

In terms of Atlético’s recent defensive form against top opposition, Simeone’s squad has been solid albeit unlucky. In its last five fixtures against teams (UCL and La Liga) playing in European competitions, it has conceded nine goals on 5.4 xG, per fotmob.com.

However, if Atlético hopes to pull off the upset at the Etihad, its offensive record must improve. Of the eight quarterfinalists, the reigning Spanish champions have notched the fewest expected goals (9.5) in the group.


BJ Cunningham’s UCL Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

If we learned anything from this year’s Round of 16 matches, it’s that road underdogs aren’t going to go for it in the first leg.

We saw it with Real Madrid against Paris Saint-Germain, as well as with Lille acing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. I expect you’ll see a similar strategy from Atlético Madrid at the Etihad, where it puts 10 men behind the ball and forces City to try and break it down.

As a result, this total is piquing my interest. Rarely do we see under 2.5 goals as an underdog in an Atlético fixture, but I think there’s value on that side. Based on the aforementioned theory, I believe there will only be goals from one side in this fixture.

Plus, City is the best side in the Premier League in playing against pressure. Opponents are only averaging a 22.1 percent successful pressure percentage against, so I don’t expect Atlético can do much to rattle the host.

Lastly, nine of Atlético’s last 11 true UCL road fixtures have finished under this benchmark. For all those reasons, I would have this price closer to -120 odds, so I’m happy to take a shot with plus money on this wager.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+100)

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