Champions League Odds vs. Our Projections For Quarterfinal Second Legs, Including PSG vs. Bayern & Real Madrid vs. Liverpool

Champions League Odds vs. Our Projections For Quarterfinal Second Legs, Including PSG vs. Bayern & Real Madrid vs. Liverpool article feature image
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Matt Dunham/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Sadio Mané.

The second leg of the Champions League quarterfinal kicks off this week with spots in the semifinals on the line. In case you missed it, here is where we stand after the first leg:

  • Manchester City 2 – Dortmund 1
  • Real Madrid 3 – Liverpool 1
  • Bayern Munich 2 – PSG 3
  • Porto 0 – Chelsea 2

There was some fantastic drama in the first leg with Manchester City needing a late Phil Foden goal to earn a win over Dortmund.

Real Madrid dominated Liverpool, holding the Reds to zero shots in the first half and were clinical in front of net to gain a two-goal advantage heading into the second leg.

PSG got their revenge against Bayern Munich from last season’s Champions League final, beating them 3-2 in Munich. It was none other than the main men Neymar and Kylian Mbappe torching them for two goals and two assists.

Chelsea took advantage of their few chances against Porto, earning a 2-0 win behind goals from Mason Mount and Ben Chillwell.

When betting second legs of competitions like the Champions League, it is vitally important to: 1) know the first leg result; and, 2) know what score the teams that are behind need to advance to the quarterfinals. The team with the most goals between the two legs advances to next round and if there is a tie on aggregate, the team that scored more away goals moves on.

For example, Manchester City is up 2-1 on Dortmund. All the Cityzens need is a draw to advance to the quarterfinals. That means teams who already have a lead are likely to play more defensive than they did in the first leg.

On the flip side of the example, Dortmund has to play very aggressive since they need to make up that one-goal deficit.

Now, without further ado, let’s get into the projections.

You can use the following projections to identify betting value on the current lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week. 

Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players who would regularly be in each team’s starting XI.

PSG vs. Bayern Munich Odds

PSG +200
Bayern Munich +115
Draw +300
Over/Under 3.5 (+100 / -124)
Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings.

PSG vs. Bayern Munich Projections

Bayern Munich is in big trouble heading into the second leg. Not only are they down 3-2 heading to France, but the are currently dealing with a massive amount of injuries to a lot of their starters.

However, despite all of those injuries, Bayern dominated the first leg, but just couldn’t put away their chances. They outshot PSG 31-7 and won the expected goals battle 4.36 to 1.64.

PSG made Bayern pay on the counter repeatedly, as Neymar and Mbappe took advantage of the few chances they had, combining for two goals and two assists.

Bayern is going to have to go with an all out attack to try and come back, especially since PSG  netted three away goals. It’ll be difficult with so many players injured, but PSG have their own injury issues to deal with this week as well.

Injury News

  • PSG: Marquinhos (CB), Layvin Kurzawa (LB), Marco Icardi (ST) are questionable.
  • Bayern Munich: Robert Lewandowski (ST), Jerome Boateng (CB), Kingsley Coman (LW), Serge Gnarby (RM), Lucas Hernandez (LB), and Douglas Costa (CAM) are out. Niklas Süle (CM) and Leon Goretzka (CM) are questionable.

Chelsea vs. Porto Odds

Chelsea -120
Porto +310
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -120)
Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings.

Chelsea vs. Porto Projections

Chelsea’s 2-0 win wasn’t quite as dominant as you would expect. Both Porto and Chelsea were even on expected goals, the difference was the Blues took advantage of their chances in front of net. Both teams played very defensive throughout the first contest and I’d expect the Blues to do the same in the second leg, while Porto will have to play ultra attacking to try and erase the 2-0 deficit.

The 2-0 deficit may be too difficult of a hill to climb for Porto. The reason they are here is because of their defense, which has been a fortress in Primeira Liga play, allowing only 0.94 xG per match. The reason for that is because they play out of a 4-4-2 formation, one of the most defensive formations in soccer. So, they may have to change up the formation for the second leg and play something they’re not used to playing.

The second leg should be routine for Chelsea, who are allowing only 0.53 xG per match under new manager Thomas Tuchel. They’re also creating 1.87 xG per match.

Tactically, Tuchel changed Chelsea’s system to a 3-4-2-1 from the 4-3-3 used by Lampard, which has allowed Chelsea to be more unpredictable. The main objective of the 3-4-2-1 is to completely overwhelm opposing defenses by outnumbering them on the counter attack.

The new formation allows Chelsea some tactical flexibility, to adjust on the fly based on how the match is going. That’s allowed Chelsea to dominate possession and keep opponents on their toes. Chelsea are heavy favorites to advance and only need to draw or lose by one, so we’ll see how much of a defensive mastermind Thomas Tuchel is on Tuesday.

Injury News

  • Chelsea: None
  • Porto: None

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Odds

Liverpool -107
Real Madrid +260
Draw +295
Over/Under 3 (-103 / -122)
Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings.

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Projections

Real Madrid took a convincing 3-1 advantage against Liverpool, holding the Reds to zero shots in the first half.

Real Madrid has been on a great run in La Liga even since the calendar turned to 2021. Los Blancos just beat their rivals Barcelona 2-1 over the weekend and have won 13 of their 18 matches across all competitions, putting up a +15.73 xGDiff in the process.

Zinedine Zidane’s 4-3-3 system has been completely overwhelming teams this season, as Los Blancos are scoring 1.84 xG per 90 minutes and only allowing 1.00 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation. Zidane used a mid block in the midfield and repeatedly hit Liverpool on the counter attack, taking advantage of the Reds inexperienced centerbacks.

Liverpool finally got their first win at Anfield in over two months this weekend beating Aston Villa 2-1 on a Trent Alexander-Arnold rocket in stoppage time.

However, things haven’t been going great for Jürgen Klopp’s men, who since the beginning of February have created just 1.41 expected goals per match, compared to 2.07 xG in its first 14 fixtures of the season.

The Reds have a major tactical problem at the moment. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives teams fits. Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps teams from playing long balls up the field, causing most opponents to spend less time on the ball since they’re forced to make quick passes.

The biggest problem for Liverpool in this match is they have to go with an all out attack to try and erase the deficit, which will leave their centerbacks exposed on the counter attack. So, look for Real Madrid to hit Liverpool on the counter attack over and over again.

Injury News

  • Liverpool: Virgil Van Djik (CB), Joe Gomez (CB), Joel Matip (CB) are out. Jordan Henderson (CM) is questionable.
  • Real Madrid: Sergio Ramos (CB) and Raphael Varane (CB) are out. Federico Valverde (CM) and Lucas Vazquez (RB) are questionable.

Dortmund vs. Manchester City Odds

Dortmund +375
Manchester City -148
Draw +310
Over/Under 3 (-115 / -108)
Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings.

Dortmund vs. Manchester City Projections

Manchester City needed a late Phil Foden goal to walk away with a 2-1 victory over Dortmund in the first leg. Dortmund almost got a huge first leg result when Marco Reus tied the match in the 84th minute.

The result was well deserved, as Manchester City won the expected goals battle 1.99 to 0.90.

Manchester City’s dominant run took a hit over the weekend when they were upset at home by Leeds 2-1. However, Manchester City completely dominated the match, allowing Leeds to create only 0.10 xG.

Manchester City has been incredibly dominant defensively since the calendar changed to 2021, as they’ve allowed only 0.68 xG per match. Pep Guardiola made a change at both center back positions back in December, putting John Stones and Rúben Dias beside one another. The two have now played together for 17 matches, combining to allow an absurd 0.62 xG per match.

The other reason for their improvement is because Pep Guardiola switched them from a 4-2-3-1 to a traditional 4-3-3. The switch has produced fantastic results, as the Cityzens are averaging 2.00 xG per 90 minutes, while allowing only 0.93 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of the 4-3-3.

Dortmund secured a nice 3-2 victory on the road at VfB Stuttgart over the weekend behind three second half goals.

Dortmund may be sitting in fifth place in the Bundesliga table, but they are way better than that position. They are third behind Bayern Munich and RB Liepzig with a +20.33 xGD and are averaging 1.88 xG per match.

Dortmund will need their young star in the making Erling Haaland to step up if they are going to advance. The 20-year-old is a matchup nightmare for Manchester City given his unique mixture of power and speed. He’s averaging a ridiculous 0.77 xG per 90 minute scoring rate in the Bundesliga, which is second to only Robert Lewandowski.

Dortmund is going to have to play very aggressive given the one goal deficit. They will need to be careful because Manchester City is one of the best counter attacking teams in the world.

Injury News

  • Dortmund: Axel Witsel (CM) and Marco Reus (LM) are out. Mats Hummels and Jadon Sancho (RM) are questionable.
  • Manchester City: None

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