Champions League Round of 16 Update: Manchester United Now 15-1 Longshots to Advance

Feb 14, 2019 10:22 AM EST
Credit:

Martin Rickett/PA Wire. Pictured: Manchester United after conceding to PSG in the Champions League Round of 16

  • After losing the opening leg to PSG, 2-0, Manchester United are now 15-1 longshots to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.
  • Dortmund and Ajax are also big longshots to advance after losing their opening legs, but Porto have a valuable chance as +150 underdogs against Roma.

We got a little bit of everything through the first four Champions League Round of 16 matches, with a 2-0 road shutout, 3-0 home shutout, 2-1 road win and 2-1 home win. There were no goals scored in the first half of any of those matches, and seven of the 11 goals occurred after the 70th minute.

PSG (2-0), Real Madrid (2-1), Tottenham (3-0) and Roma (2-1) all have the upper hand heading into the second legs on March 5th and 6th, but not all are safe quite yet.

Here’s a look at the updated odds to advance for each matchup.


PSG vs. Manchester United (PSG lead 2-0)

Odds to advance:

  • PSG -5000
  • Manchester United +1500

Manchester United dug themselves a deep hole by losing the first leg at home to PSG, 2-0. They’ll also likely be without Paul Pogba for the second leg after he received his second yellow card late in the match at Old Trafford.

In the current Champions League format dating back to 2003-04, teams that take a 2-0 lead into the second leg at home have advanced 12 out of 12 times.

The second leg will be played on Wednesday, March 6th at Le Parc des Princes in Paris, France, where Manchester United will try to rewrite history as +450 moneyline dogs to win and +1500 odds to advance.

Porto vs. Roma (Roma lead 2-1)

Odds to advance:

  • Roma -180
  • Porto +150

Roma were in firm control of this matchup after taking a 2-0 lead at home in the first leg, but a late Porto goal gave the Portugese side plenty of hope for the second leg.

There have been 20 instances where the home team won the first leg by a 2-1 scoreline, and they went on to advance just 10 times (50%), which bodes well for Porto in this case.

The return leg will take place on Wednesday, March 6th at the Estádio do Dragão in Porto, Portugal. Porto are listed at +110 to win that match at home, and a clean sheet victory of any kind will see them through to the quarterfinals.

Dortmund vs. Tottenham (Tottenham lead 3-0)

Odds to advance:

  • Tottenham -2000
  • Dortmund +1000

Dortmund may have outplayed Tottenham in the first half of the first leg, but it was a one-sided affair in the second half which culminated in three Spurs goals.

It will take a lot for Dortmund to turn things around, but they’ll be at home and an early goal could shift momentum in their favor. That match will be played on Tuesday, March 5th at  the Westfalenstadion in Dortmund, Germany, where the hosts are -105 to win and +1000 to advance.

Real Madrid vs. Ajax (Real Madrid lead 2-1)

Odds to advance:

  • Real Madrid -1250
  • Ajax +725

Ajax were in control for most of the opening leg in Amsterdam, but it was Real Madrid coming out on top with a 2-1 victory. Goals just weren’t coming for the home side, but they did manage to grab one in the 75th minute.

Ajax are big +500 underdogs to win at Real Madrid in the second leg, something they’ll have to do to have any chance of advancing. The return match will occur at the Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain on Tuesday, March 5th, and oddsmakers expect Real Madrid to advance at -1250 odds.

Keep in mind that there are still four Champions League Round of 16 opening legs to be played, for which we’ll have betting previews early next week:

  • Barcelona at Lyon (Tuesday, Feb. 19 at 3 p.m. ET)
  • Bayern Munich at Liverpool (Tuesday, Feb. 19 at 3 p.m. ET)
  • Juventus at Atletico Madrid (Wednesday, Feb. 20 at 3 p.m. ET)
  • Manchester City at Schalke (Wednesday, Feb. 20 at 3 p.m. ET)

Lastly, here are the updated odds to win the Champions League title:

  • Manchester and Barcelona remain the title favorites, but PSG have leapfrogged Juventus following their win over Manchester United.
  • Tottenham’s 3-0 win over Dortmund propelled them from +2800 to +1600 to lift the trophy, a positive change of ~2.5%.
  • Ajax now have the worst odds (250-1), tied with Schalke, while Dortmund and Man United have both slipped to 125-1.
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