Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Odds, Pick: Goals to Come on Saturday Morning

Chelsea Just Looking to Get to The End

It’s been a rough one for Chelsea this year. They’re onto their third manager, are on track to have one of their worst EPL seasons since the early 90s and were knocked out in the quarterfinals of the Champions League and third round of the FA Cup. Their team is full of unhappy, expensive players and there’s nothing left for them to play for this year, except pride.

The Blues have been a poor goalscoring squad throughout the season, ranking 16th in the league and averaging only 1.0 goals per match. But after a winless drought and sequence of low-scoring performances, Chelsea flashed signs during their previous 3-1 win that they’re getting some attacking mojo back. With a little momentum from last game and motivation to satisfy unhappy fans in their home stadium, I expect an above-average goal scoring performance from the Blues during this match.

However, I’m still concerned about Chelsea’s defending. They’ve been especially bad defensively in recent matches and with some defenders expected to miss this match, I’m doubtful they’ll turn the ship around tomorrow. Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet in their past seven matches, conceding 13 during that time (average 1.86/game). Tomorrow, they’ll miss recently injured outside backs Ben Chilwell and Marc Cucurella, as well as Reece James and center back Koulibaly who picked up injuries in April.

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Nottingham Forest Happy to Be Staying Alive

In their first season back to the Premier League since 98/99, Nottingham have an opportunity to continue in the top flight of English football for another season, but this game against Chelsea is crucial for them as they anticipate challenging matches to conclude the season.

Throughout the season, Forest have similarly struggled with goal scoring, also averaging only 1.0 goals per game. However, in their past four matches they’ve been scoring, and being scored against, in abundance. They’ve netted 10 (averaging 2.5/game) and conceded 9 (averaging 2.25/game).

Given their need for goals, fueled by their desperation to widen the gap from relegation and no injured Nottingham defenders expected to return for this match, I anticipate copious scoring opportunities for Chelsea.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Pick

I’m grabbing the over 2.5 at -118. Given recent performances and respective motivations for each team going into this match, I think -118 (implied odds 54.13%) is a really solid price to take for the over in this fixture. In Chelsea’s last four EPL games, an average of 3.25 goals were scored and in Nottingham’s last four EPL games, an average of 4.75 goals were scored. Together, that averages out to 4 goals scored per game.

Recently, both squads have produced and conceded plentiful goals in their performances, struggled defensively, and in this game will play to win. I don’t expect this match to be compact. Moreover, Forest haven’t kept a clean sheet in 14 matches, averaging 2.14 goals against in those games. Meanwhile, Chelsea will give everything to put the ball in the back of the net and finally get a win at home.

I do expect Chelsea to come away with more goals at the final whistle – Forest have just one win in 17 away games this season –but I think Forest will score at least one as they have in four of their last five away defeats.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-118)