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Chicago Fire vs. Philadelphia Union Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Fade ‘Windy City’ Hosts in MLS Showdown (June 29)

Chicago Fire vs. Philadelphia Union Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Fade ‘Windy City’ Hosts in MLS Showdown (June 29) article feature image
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Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Union captain Alejandro Bedoya.

Chicago vs. Philadelphia Odds

Chicago Odds +110
Philadelphia Odds +210
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -130)
Day | Time Wednesday | 8 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

After moving back atop the Eastern Conference standings, Philadelphia will try to maintain its place there Wednesday when it visits struggling Chicago in their Major League Soccer showdown.

Philadelphia earned a 2-1 victory over New York City FC last Sunday in a wild ending to secure the season series sweep over last year’s MLS Cup champion. Mikael Uhre and Cory Burke each scored their third goals in the victory.

Chicago snapped a 10-match winless stretch with a dramatic 1-0 victory over D.C. United two weekends ago, but then regressed in a 2-0 defeat at the Houston Dynamo last time out. Switzerland international and former Liverpool star Xherdan Shaqiri missed both games.

This is these teams’ first meeting of the season. Philadelphia took five points from three confrontations last season.

Chicago Fire

Shaqiri missed the D.C. United game with a hamstring issue and the trip to Houston with illness.

And although he’s not on the Fire injury report, his fitness is uncertain. He played only 20 minutes for Switzerland against Portugal before exiting injured in the June 12 match.

Chicago has other personnel issues. Defender Wyatt Omsberg and winger Jairo Torres are out injured. And defenders Miguel Navarro and Mauricio Pineda are in MLS health and safety protocols.

Striker Kacper Przybylko will be facing his former club for the first time. He had 35 league goals in three seasons with the Union and is tied for the team lead with Shaqiri on three goals.

By The Numbers

  • 32 — The number of days since Xherdan Shaqiri has played a full 90 minutes for Chicago.
  • 0-4-3 — The Fire’s record (W-L-D) against teams that entered the midweek holding one of the 14 MLS Cup playoff places.
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Philadelphia Union

Before Sunday’s win, the Union had drawn seven of their previous eight matches and given back one-goal leads in five of those draws. And they yielded another one-goal lead against NYCFC when Kai Wagner’s handball led to Valentin Castellanos’ penalty leveler.

However, this time the Philadelphia finally got a good break it frankly deserved when Jose Martinez’s shot redirected off Burke and past goalkeeper Sean Johnson to deliver the win.

Daniel Gazdag still leads Philadelphia with seven goals, scoring four of those away from home. His last came on May 22 in a 2-0 win at Portland.

By The Numbers

  • 683 — Number of minutes Philadelphia has spent holding the lead this season.
  • 74 — Number of minutes the Union have spent trailing this season.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

Philadelphia has been undervalued often in 2022, even with its tendency to split points, and this is another example.

Like a few high-pressing teams around the globe, the Union excel on the road relative to the norm. Their away expected goal difference is virtually 0.0 this season. That’s only slightly worse than the Fire’s +1.2 xGDiff at home.

And Philadelphia’s xG totals should also be taken with a major caveat. The club spent nearly 10 times as long with a lead as it has trailing this season. That can generally depress xGDiff, because the team that trails usually takes the attacking initiative.

Adjusting for all that, Philadelphia should probably be at least a slight favorite here. If this were played on a full week’s rest, I’d back the Union on the money line. The quick turnaround makes me slightly more cautious, but I still love them on the Draw No Bet wager at +120 odds and an implied 45.5% probability.

The Pick: Philadelphia — Draw No Bet (+120)

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