Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Prediction | Premier League Picks, Best Bets for Saturday
Simon Stacpoole/Getty. Pictured: Jurgen Klopp.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +550 |
| Liverpool Odds | -200 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +137 |
Manchester City have now dropped points in four consecutive matches to fall into fourth place in the Premier League after 15 match weeks. The Cityzens' troubles have opened the door for both Liverpool and Arsenal to open up a small points lead over the two-time defending champions. The Reds are +350 at bet365 to lift the trophy, just behind Arsenal.
Liverpool avoided a potential landmine with a win on Wednesday at Sheffield United, and they'll hit the road again on Saturday for a more difficult matchup at Crystal Palace in south London. The Reds have won all seven home matches at Anfield in the league and have a +16 goal differential in those matches, but their away form is considerably more inconsistent and opens the door for a potential Saturday upset to kick off match week 16.
Read on for my Crystal Palace vs Liverpool prediction.
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Crystal Palace
Palace will once again be without Eberechi Eze due to injury as he's still in a walking boot. The Eagles have just one league win since October began, a 2-0 home win against Burnley. There's been a bunch of bad bounces that have gone against the Eagles. They lost 3-2 to Everton and 2-1 to Luton Town in consecutive weeks despite creating more expected goals and chances in both matches. Palace also have dealt with some key injuries, including the absences of Eze and striker Odsonne Edouard for a few matches.
One clear boost to the attack has been the return of Michael Olise from injury. After he nearly moved to Chelsea this summer, the 21-year old midfielder has produced 0.57 xG + xA per 90 in 3.3 90s since returning. He does a ton of pressing and good defensive work from the front, which is crucial against a team with the passing quality that Liverpool have in the midfield. But given that Palace don't attack with many numbers, his ability to create in and around the penalty area is most critical to the team.
Olise is excellent at creating shots for others, and Edouard stands to benefit from having him on the pitch in the attack with him. Edouard isn't putting up elite striker numbers, but his three shots per 90 and 0.40 xG per 90 is enough to be a league average striker.
Palace have really struggled to turn final third touches into box entries, and no Eze will remain an issue there. But Olise can supplement some of the ball progression and as a result Palace will threaten against a Liverpool defense that has been quite vulnerable away from Anfield.
Liverpool
Liverpool have the second-largest delta between home and away expected goal difference in the league. The Reds have the best xG difference at home in the Premier League, but they’ve played more like a league average team away from home. They have three wins, four draws and one loss away from home, and Alisson’s plus shot stopping is a large reason why they’ve grabbed more results than deserved.
With Alisson out injured, the Reds are considerably more vulnerable to teams who play on the break and can get in behind this defense. Liverpool’s defense haven't been as bad from a set piece perspective as last year, but they’re still below average in xG per set piece allowed. Palace's set piece attack is above average at generating quality chances, so that could be the key equalizing factor.
They've conceded just nine goals in eight matches away, but the 11.6 xGA is considerably more alarming. That includes a full expected goal conceded to Sheffield on Wednesday, who had only surpassed one non-penalty xGF twice all season prior to that match.
As elite as the attack is overall, they're reliant on transition opportunities on the break to generate their best chances. Palace will sit extremely deep, deny counter chances and make life as difficult for the Reds. You can't stop Liverpool's attack completely, but we've seen Liverpool come out flat in the early kickoff multiple times this year.
It's hard to cover big spreads as a road favorite if your defense is conceding more than one xG per match.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Prediction
The Eagles closed +0.5 against healthy Spurs at the peak of their form. They closed +0.5 at home against Arsenal in match week 2. Now, the market is moving against them and has road Liverpool taking money despite the Reds looking a bit exhausted in their routine 2-0 win at Sheffield United on Wednesday.
Liverpool probably will win this match, even away from home, but they drop points more often than they win it by multiple goals against a stingy Palace home defense that will cede possession to the Reds and take away chances for Liverpool to run in transition.
I'd bet Crystal Palace +1 at -120 or better.
Pick: Crystal Palace +1 (-120 or better)
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