Czech Republic vs. Denmark Euro 2020 Odds & Pick: Bet the Danes to Come Out on Top (Saturday, July 3)
Marcio Machado/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Joakim Maehle of Denmark.
- Denmark will take on the Czech Republic in Euro 2020 action on Saturday.
- With the Czechs being vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball, Anthony Dabbundo sees value with the Danes.
- Check out Dabbundo's full betting guide complete with updated odds and a pick below.
Czech Republic vs. Denmark Odds
|Czech Republic Odds||+290|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+163 / -200)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN | fuboTV|
|Odds updated Saturday morning via DraftKings.|
While one side of the Euro 2020 bracket features three European powerhouses in Spain, Italy and Belgium, the bottom half of the Euro 2020 draw is the half of opportunity. For the Czech Republic and Denmark, it’s a chance to make the Euro semifinals with a potential matchup against England or Ukraine on Wednesday on London.
The Czechs finished third in their group on tiebreakers before pulling off an upset of the Netherlands in the Round of 16. Denmark’s tournament started in near-tragedy after the collapse of star midfielder Christian Eriksen, but the Danes have looked dominant in their past two wins against Russia and Wales.
Denmark went from the brink of elimination to now favored to make the semifinals of a major tournament for the first time since their shocking Euro win in 1992.
Now, the Danes are legitimately one of the best teams in the tournament thus far and is undervalued to knock out the Czech Republic, who has been a bit fortunate to make it this far.
Czech Republic Vulnerable on Defensive Side
At the beginning of the tournament, some saw the Czech Republic as a potential dark horse to make a run in the knockouts. I was not one of those people. Although I did take them against Scotland early in the group stage, I’ve had my skepticism about their overall quality and found them to be more fortunate than good throughout the Euros.
Patrik Schick scored from half field against Scotland. They were awarded a controversial penalty against Croatia and only advanced against the Netherlands because of a second-half Dutch red card. While the Czechs played well in that match to deny goal scoring opportunities for the Netherlands, they weren’t able to create much of anything themselves, and that’s against a much weaker out of possession Dutch side than Denmark.
Denmark can do a much better job of sustaining pressure and creating space for shots inside the penalty area against the Czechs low block than the Dutch did. The Czech Republic is going to try to defend and counter, but they don’t get high-quality shots compared to most teams that employ that strategy well. They rank middle of the pack (worse than Denmark) in xG per shot.
Most teams who defend that way try to prevent a high xG per shot and are willing to sacrifice and allow low-quality shots. But the Czech Republic have allowed the seventh-highest xG per shot. They’re a defend in a low block and counter team, but they allow a pretty high percentage of passes and crosses to be completed in their own area, compared to the final third. They have the profile of a much weaker team than Denmark, all-around.
Finding Offensive Rhythm Key for Denmark
A look at the names on the team sheet doesn’t show them to be a true tournament title contender. But watching them play and looking at the underlying numbers is a different story. A dominant first half against Belgium and back-to-back demolitions of Russia and Wales has them in the quarterfinals.
Denmark has the fourth best xG difference in the tournament, behind Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. They have the most attacking penalty area touches, second-most passes into the area and have completely overwhelmed opponents with their possession structures.
Denmark doesn’t apply pressure that much because they’ve had possession so much, but they do have the third-highest successful pressure rate in the tournament. While they have relied on the actual goals coming from outside the box more than average, the Danes’ average shot distance is in the top half of the field and their shots per match is second-highest.
The two players who have impressed most for Denmark have been Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg in the middle, who has stepped up for Eriksen, and Joakim Maehle on the left. Most of their shots have begun with one of those two and being multi-dimensional in attack makes them more difficult to defend.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Denmark has the attacking fluidity and talent to break down the Czech Republic’s low block. And when the Czechs do win the ball, Denmark’s counter-pressing should be effective enough to keep the Czech Republic penned in for large stretches of the match.
Denmark’s overall talent doesn’t jump off the page, but their combination of defensive solidity and ball progression can beat anyone in this tournament. With an extra day of rest to travel to Azerbaijan for this match, Denmark has the edge and should end the Czech Republic’s quarterfinal on Saturday.
Pick: Denmark ML (+100 or better)
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