Dortmund vs Newcastle Prediction | Champions League Preview
Ralf Ibing/Getty. Pictured: Dortmund players.
Dortmund vs Newcastle Odds
| Dortmund Odds | +170 |
| Newcastle Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Borussia Dortmund played their way right back into the mix of the group of death with their away win at Newcastle two weeks ago, 1-0. Dortmund now will play two of their final three matches at home and are a small favorite over Newcastle in the betting market to snag the second spot in the group behind favorite PSG.
Dortmund lost 4-0 at home to rival Bayern in Germany over the weekend, while Newcastle had a physical and critical 1-0 victory at home against Arsenal in the Premier League.
The Magpies took a ton of money in the build-up to the reverse fixture, steaming from -130 to -170 on the three-way moneyline at the close. Dortmund won the expected goals battle 1.8-1.1 in that first fixture in England, and the first half showing was especially impressive from Edin Terzic's side. Dortmund's counter-press created a ton of transition opportunities and chances in the open field against a usually rock solid Newcastle defense. Dortmund could have had two or three with better finishing.
The Magpies were then able to take control of the game in the second half, but didn't quite find the equalizer despite hitting the woodwork. The market has come down considerably in the totals market here and Newcastle are dealing with some injuries. It's the key swing fixture in the group of death and the highlight of the Tuesday's Champions League card.
Let's dive into my Dortmund vs Newcastle prediction.
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Dortmund
The most alarming signal for Dortmund this year is how porous their transition defense looks. They haven't done nearly enough in attacking transition moments — traditionally a staple for a Dortmund side — to balance out how open their matches tend to be. That was on full display in Saturday's Der Klassiker defeat to Bayern Munich. Once Bayern went up 1-0, Dortmund had the majority of the possession but Bayern created a handful of huge scoring chances in transition.
Every competent attack that Dortmund have faced this season has created a lot of high-quality chances against them too. Eintracht Frankfurt managed 2.2 xG, Bayern 3.2, PSG 2.4, Milan 1.6 and Newcastle 1.1. Only twice all season have Dortmund held an opponent under 1 xG. If you look at their defensive personnel, it's easy to understand why they've been leaking goals. Dortmund will still be without Emre Can for this match, and he's their best option for midfield ball-winning.
There's no high quality ball winner in the middle of the pitch. As a result, the defense is sixth in box entries allowed, seventh in NPxG allowed, 10th in xG per set piece and 16th in final third entry to box entry conversion rate. This is the ideal matchup for Newcastle to flex its transition muscle, and in some ways, Dortmund being at home and on the ball more could better help Newcastle sit off and wait for its moments to press.
Newcastle
One of the main concerns with Newcastle headed into this match is how they recover from Saturday's physical contest. The Magpies are at a travel disadvantage and the injuries are really piling up for them. Alexander Isak, Matt Targett, Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes will all miss this match through either injury or suspension (Tonali). Newcastle don't have much in terms of attacking depth beyond Callum Wilson right now, and he was taken off in a goalless game on Saturday to try to preserve his body as well.
The front three of Anthony Gordon, Wilson and Miguel Almiron is in good form but the bench options behind them leave some real questions. Eddie Howe has made some adjustments to sit off a little bit and press with less frequency, instead choosing their moments to try to press and turn opponents over. Newcastle looked quite fatigued in the second half at Wolves, then played a change team in the EFL Cup win against Manchester United days later.
It's hard to see Newcastle at full strength and energy levels for this Tuesday match, especially given how much their play style is dependent upon being physically imposing on their opponents.
Dortmund vs Newcastle
Prediction
The market closed as high as 3.25 for the first leg in Newcastle two weeks ago. Even with some of the attacking injuries for Newcastle and the potential flat spot for them, this market has overreacted. The first leg was still quite open, featured 2.9 xG combined and both teams desperately need points in this match. I'm playing back against the overreaction and banking on Dortmund's transition defensive holes to continue to cause problems for them.
I project close to three goals in this match and would bet over 2.5 at -140 or better.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-130 via FanDuel)
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