Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Tottenham Betting Preview: Spurs Have Value on Moneyline
Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: Richarlison
- Eintracht Frankfurt hosts Tottenham on Tuesday in the Champions League.
- Anthony Dabbundo evaluates the contest between the Bundesliga and Premier League sides.
- Read on to see why he sees value in one moneyline.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Tottenham Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-126 / +104)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||TV | Paramount+|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Both Eintracht Frankfurt and Tottenham enter Tuesday's Champions League clash tied at three points in the standings within their group. They'll play twice in the next eight days against one another, with the return fixture scheduled for next Wednesday in London.
Tottenham lost its first Premier League match of the season on Saturday at local rival Arsenal, 3-1, while Frankfurt beat German league leaders Union Berlin, 2-0 at home. Frankfurt is in the competition because of its stunning upset run through the Europa League last season, but its underlying numbers remain mediocre in Germany this season.
The market moved in the last week toward the German side, though, after Spurs lost to Arsenal on Saturday. Tottenham was -110 on the moneyline but is now at plus-odds to win this match and try to reclaim control of the group from leaders Sporting Lisbon.
The Bundesliga has declined in quality relative to the Premier League in the last two years and Frankfurt isn't the team it was two seasons ago when it finished in the top six in the league. Frankfurt has a negative expected goal difference and has really struggled to consistently create chances since the departure of leading crosses Filip Kostic to Juventus in the summer.
Frankfurt has produced 2.3 total expected goals in its last three Bundesliga matches. For the season, Frankfurt sits in sixth place on points but it isn't close to there in my power ratings. I rate Frankfurt 10th in the league on team strength. The attack is 11th in xG produced, the defense is eighth in xG allowed and the numbers follow a similar pattern dating back to last year too.
As a club, they're in the middle of the pack in Germany when it comes to their attacking speed and possession play. They do like to attack quickly into space to create chances as they rank sixth in the league in direct speed. The system under Oliver Glasner is designed force high turnovers with their higher line in a classic Bundesliga style.
This is a major risk stylistically against Tottenham, who is one of the most lethal transition teams in all of Europe. Frankfurt ranks in the middle of the pack in shots produced off of high turnovers and has produced more goals from them than any team in the league.
One myth about Spurs is that they don't ever build out from the back or use their center backs and goalkeeper to try to progress the ball up the pitch. It is true that Spurs aren't a possession dominant side at all, but they are capable of pass sequences and getting opponents to overcommit to find the one line breaking pass in behind a defense.
If you think of the vintage Spurs performances under Antonio Conte against Leeds United, Everton, Manchester City and Liverpool from the spring, all were textbook. Spurs would use Antonio Conte's patterns to generate direct attacks on the opponent's goal.
No team in the PL has more direct attacks than Spurs and Frankfurt are quite vulnerable to this tactically. Only Bayern has forced more high turnovers than Frankfurt and while Spurs have looked shaky in possession, Heung-min Son, Harry Kane and Richarlison will have plenty of space to exploit here.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Spurs have been generally overrated in the market in my view for the last couple months as they have failed to reach the heights of the second half of last year in their performances. But this is a great bounceback spot after the loss in the North London Derby that was mostly driven by two fluke goals.
Arsenal were the better side in that match, but Spurs didn't play badly enough in one game to warrant such a shift in price for this match. While Spurs struggled to break down the more conservative Sporting Lisbon and Marseille out of possession in its first two matches, I think they'll have less trouble with the high press and high line of the Bundesliga side on Tuesday.
Tottenham is still +0.45 xG difference per 90 in the Premier League, and Frankfurt is underwater in Germany. If you factor in the difference between the two leagues and then add in home field for Frankfurt, I still make Spurs a favorite by more than half of a goal.
Tottenham wins this more than half of the time in my projections and I'll bet them on the moneyline at anything plus money or better.
The Pick: Spurs ML (+100 or better)