Europa League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bets for Ferencvaros vs Leverkusen, More

Europa League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bets for Ferencvaros vs Leverkusen, More article feature image

Via DeFodi Images/Getty Images. Pictured; Adama Traore of Ferencvarosi TC controls the Ball during the UEFA Europa League round of 16 leg one match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Ferencvarosi TC at BayArena on March 9, 2023 in Leverkusen, Germany.

After Thursday's Europa League second legs, Europe's secondary continental competition will be down to just eight remaining teams. The first legs of these matchups brought plenty of drama last week, headlined by Union Berlin's 3-3 draw with Union Saint-Gilloise in Berlin. Those two will travel to Belgium in what is likely to be a more cautious second leg.

Arsenal and Sporting CP also played out a high-scoring draw when the Gunners drew 2-2 in Portugal. They return home to north London as massive favorites but could see some squad rotation once again.

Manchester United has a commanding 4-1 lead against Real Betis, while Roma has a 2-0 lead going to Real Sociedad in a matchup where Sociedad will feel they have a real opportunity to turn the tie around on home soil.

Here are my two favorite bets for the Europa League Round of 16 second legs

Europa League Odds & Picks

Fenerbahçe vs Sevilla

Fenerbahçe Odds+120
Sevilla Odds+210
Over/Under2.5 (-104/ -118)
Day | TimeThursday |  1:45 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Sevilla's 2-0 win at home in the first leg was an extremely misleading scoreline when you examine how the match really played out under more of a microscope. Fenerbahce outshot Sevilla 12-9 in total, created 1.1 xG to just 0.7 for Sevilla and had more touches in the opposition penalty area by one.

Sevilla opened as high as a -170 moneyline favorite in that first leg before a ton of Fenerbahce money hit the market and caused Sevilla to close right at -110. Now on the road and protecting a 2-0 lead, I wouldn't be surprised to see Fenerbahce completely turn the tie and at least get it to extra time.

The Turkish side had an impressive group stage campaign that saw it post a +5.2 xG difference in six matches against Rennes, Dynamo Kyiv and AEK Larnaka. The attack — led by two former Premier League players Enner Valencia and Joshua King — has more than enough firepower to expose an aging Sevilla defense.

Given that Sevilla has played like a relegation level defense in Spain this year and is 18th in xGA per match, it's hard to envision them keeping a clean sheet on the road in Turkey against a talented attack.

This matchup is eerily similar to the Sevilla playoff round victory against PSV Eindhoven last round. The Spanish side had an elite finishing day to comfortably win 3-0 at home in the first leg despite not being all that much better than the opponent on the sum of chances created.

Protecting an aggregate lead, Sevilla had an extremely conservative approach and lost the second leg 2-0 without ever being threatened to not go through. PSV scored its second in the 95th minute, and Sevilla successfully ran out of the clock.

I expect a similar approach on the road with a lead from Sevilla, and Fenerbahce should be closer to even money to win this match.

Dabbundo's Pick: Fenerbahce ML (+110 or better) 

Ferencvaros vs Leverkusen

Ferencavaros Odds+280
Leverkusen Odds-110
Over/Under2.5 (-132/ +108)
Day | TimeThursday |  4 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Leverkusen's attacking output at home against Ferencvaros was lacking in the first leg, even though Die Werkself comfortably won 2-0. Ferencvaros wasn't really able to trouble Leverkusen's defense for much away from home with just eight shots and 0.7 xGF.

Leverkusen did score twice from fewer than one excepted goal's worth of output. The wonder strike from Karim Demirbay and the set piece header from Edmond Tapsoba makes the lead relatively secure.

You'd expect a response from Ferencvaros on its home soil though and Leverkusen is clearly inflated in the market as a road favorite while protecting a multiple-goal aggregate lead. Leverkusen is highly effective at playing in transition, but  they may not need to get out of second gear in order to get through.

Leverkusen also has a date with Bayern on Sunday in the Bundesliga, which tends to take precedence over the Europa League for these German clubs. With that being said, Leverkusen doesn't have much of a chance at top four, and thus Europe may be its best shot at the Champions League next season.

The attack has improved since Florian Wirtz returned from his ACL injury, but the German side is still just -4.1 xGD away from home this season in the Bundesliga. I'd bet Ferencvaros +0.5 at -120 or better. A draw or even a one goal loss is more than good enough for Leverkusen to take one step closer to European silverware,

Dabbundo's Pick: Ferencvaros +0.5 (-120 or better)

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