Europa League Predictions & Conference League Picks

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Dabbundo: For the second consecutive year, Bayer Leverkusen and Roma will face off in the Europa League semifinals. Roma had an excellent defensive game plan across the two legs last season and won the tie 1-0 on aggregate with a home win in the first leg and posting a goalless draw in the second. Roma led that tie for the final 117 minutes and Leverkusen managed just two total shots with an xG rating of 0.11 or higher. Leverkusen consistently ran into a wall at the edge of the Roma penalty area and never found the breakthrough equalizing goal.

This version of Bayer Leverkusen is a considerably better unit than last year, as Xabi Alonso’s side has won the Bundesliga, is the favorite for the Europa League and has not lost a single match in any competition all year long. Roma don't have José Mourinho anymore — but they remain a quality tournament outfit. Roma have had one of the most difficult paths to this semifinal, beating Feyenoord on penalties before handling both Brighton and AC Milan in the round of 16 and quarterfinals, respectively. Roma continue to be an elite defense with the fourth best underlying xGA in Serie A this season.

The story of Leverkusen’s season has been late goals. They have scored 17 goals after the 88th minute this season, including goals in each of their last three matches to preserve the unbeaten streak. It’s clear that Leverkusen haven't been at their overall best in the last month of the year and the German side is a bit overvalued by the market as a result.

Leverkusen are at their best when teams overcommit to pressing them and they can use their wing backs to overlap and progress the ball through their wide outlets. Roma offer almost no pressing at all out of possession and it’s a vastly different approach than what Alonso’s side normally sees in the Bundesliga.

With a draw being a good result for Leverkusen, and Roma maintaining their excellent defensive metrics, I’l back the Italian side to get a result at -140 or better.

Pick: Roma +0.5 (-140)

Thursady, May 2

3 p.m. ET

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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Atalanta are a really fun team to watch right now with how well they are playing.

Under Gasperini they will consistently build up out of a back three trying to get wide passing triangles against the opponent's press and they do it with a lot of success. Then once they enter the final third they commit a ton of bodies into the attack and have been really good creating chances from wide areas, as they’ve completed the third-most crosses into the penalty area in Serie A.

Atalanta may also have the hottest striker on the planet in Gianlucca Scamacca, who has now scored 15 goals in all competitions in only 20.1 90s and has scored seven goals in his last seven appearances with a lot of them coming via crosses.

Marseille have kind of fallen off defensively and lost their tactical identity under Gasset. That is not necessarily a bad thing, they are just playing more passively in a solid defensive block out of possession and looking to transition more rather than the possession dominant team we saw under Gattuso. Under Gasset they are allowing 1.21 xG per 90 minutes, when under Gattuso they were allowing 1.01 xG per 90 minutes.

Out of possession, Atalanta are a really good defensive team that does the basics really well. A lot of defending and doing it successful simply comes down to winning duels across the pitch and working hard to win the ball. Atalanta led Serie A in ball recoveries per 90 minutes and they are top five in high turnovers forced, which has led them in 2024 to only allowing 1.13 npxG per 90 minutes.

I have Atalanta projected as a small road favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at +102.

Pick: Atalanta – Draw No Bet (+102)

Conference League Picks

Thursday, May 2

3 p.m. ET

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Aston Villa Odds	-250
Olympiacos	+700
Draw	+360
Over / Under	2.5  -152 / +126

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: This is a very interesting situation for both teams because neither can put all of their eggs into the Europa Conference League basket, as they both still have high stakes matches remaining in their own domestic leagues.

Olympiacos have gone through a lot of changes this season and are on their third manager and third sporting director, but generally it has been a successful season and the underlying numbers have been good. In Greece they have +0.91 xGD per 90 minutes and are right in the thick of the Championship playoffs with a good shot to win the Greek Super League.

José Luis Mendilibar who you may remember won the Europa League with Sevilla last year took over the club on February 11th and the results have been a little mixed. He’s guided them through three rounds in the Europa Conference League playoffs, but in big domestic matches against Panathinakos and AEK Athens, they’ve been beaten pretty badly.

Under Mendilibar, Olympiacos has become much more of a direct team as opposed to previous managers, which actually sets up well for this match. Aston Villa is going to play out of the back and Olympiacos is going to press them high with a lot of intensity. That is either going to create one of two things, either Aston Villa is going to be able to play through them and create chances through their build up or they will turn the ball over in their own end, which they have been prone to do.

Either way, it should create a very high tempo back and forth type of match, so I like the value on Over 2.5 goals at -141.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-152)

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Thursday, May 2

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Fiorentina Odds	-130
Club Brugge Odds	+260
Draw	+360
Over / Under	2.5  -106 / -120

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Fiorentina and Aston Villa may be the two betting favorites to win the Europa Conference League, but the underlying metrics of Club Brugge in this tournament suggest that the Belgian side is a very live underdog in this semifinal matchup. Brugge have played 10 matches in this competition with a +1.25 xG differential per match on average. Fiorentina and Lille are second and third at +1.19 and +1.13 respectively.

Fiorentina have excellent ball progression metrics in this competition and in Serie A. They do a solid job of tilting the field on their opponents, but they’re also vulnerable to big scoring chances conceded on the defensive end because of holes in their out of possession press.

Club Brugge are an extremely effective out of possession defense and they’ve only allowed more than 1.1 xG in one conference league match. Unlike last season when Brugge had mediocre numbers in Belgium and was subsequently trounced in the Champions League, this version of Brugge also has the best underlying numbers in the top flight of the Belgian league.

Fiorentina are a rightful favorite at home but there’s not much to separate these teams and I’d bet Club Brugge to get a result at +100 or better.

Pick: Club Brugge +0.5 (+100)