Europa League Predictions, Odds | Best Bets & Expert Picks for Roma vs Milan, Atalanta vs Liverpool & More

Cunningham: The first leg played out pretty similar to how I think the second leg is going to go. Roma scored early and then dropped into a low defensive block, allowing AC Milan to control a majority of the possession and limiting them to a large number of low quality efforts. If you look at the box score, you’ll see AC Milan attempted 25 shots and created 1.6 expected goals, but none of those 25 chances had an xG rating over 0.15.

Since Jose Mourinho left Roma and De Rossi has taken over, the amount of goals scored in Roma matches has vastly increased, but the amount of chances created and allowed really hasn’t increased that much. Under De Rossi, Roma matches are averaging 3.19 goals, but only 2.63 expected goals. Even when you remove all of the penalties, Roma’s 11 matches under De Rossi only are averaging 2.09 expected goals. The reason for that is because their style of play really hasn’t changed a whole lot from Mourinho. Roma have switched to mainly a 4-3-3, but the defensive principles remain the same. Although they aren’t dropping five guys into the last line of defense they are still maintaing a compact 4-4-2, but they are still a passive team by nature, as was displayed in the first leg.

AC Milan are not the type of offense that is effective at breaking down solid low blocks. They’ve put up good underlying numbers against lesser competition in Serie A, but against some of the top defenses in Italy they are only averaging around 1.25 xG per 90 minutes. They also have drastically out-performed their underlying metrics offensively, scoring 63 goals off of 52.7 expected goals. So, the question is, how are they going to find a way to create big chances against this Roma defensive block? Based on the first leg, it’s most likely going to be a lot of low quality chances.

I only have 1.8 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-110 or better)

Thursday, April 18th

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Bayer Leverkusen won their first ever Bundesliga title with a dominant 5-0 win against Werder Bremen on Sunday. Now, the German champions will chase a treble with wins in the Europa League and DFB-Pokal. Leverkusen were the comfortably better side in the first leg at home (xG 2.3-0.2) against a very passive and very deep West Ham low defensive block.

The situation and tactics will change completely now for the second leg in East London with the Hammers forced to open up and take more chances down two goals. Jarrod Bowen is still not fully fit and may not start for West Ham in this match, while top creator Lucas Paqueta picked up a suspension and will definitely miss this match. To make matters worse for the Hammers against the back three and wing backs set up of Leverkusen, West Ham will be without Emerson Palmieri due to suspension as well.

West Ham’s defense has been an issue in the Premier League all season long and it’s hard to see them keeping Leverkusen out given the German side’s ability to play in transition. The Hammers rank 16th in xG allowed per 90, are second to last in box entries allowed and have allowed the fourth-most total shots.

David Moyes’ system is predicated on playing without the ball, and the center backs have gotten exposed at various points when trying to play on the ball more with a higher defensive line. Leverkusen have shown real tactical versatility this year, most notably in their 3-0 win against Bayern Munich while holding just 39% of the possession.

That performance sets them up well to win this match away from home, even though they don’t need to win the match to advance to the semifinal. West Ham’s attack is considerably less threatening when both Bowen and Paqueta aren’t in the side.

Pick: Bayer Leverkusen ML (-110 via bet365)

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Thursday, April 18th

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Benfica Odds	+130
Marseille Odds	+190
Draw	+240
Over / Under	2.5  -142 / +118

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s second half goal brought Marseille back into this quarterfinal tie, and now the French side returns home as a small favorite to win the second leg and a short underdog to turn the tie around and reach the semifinal. There wasn’t much to separate the two sides in the first leg overall. Benfica had 25 touches in the Marseille penalty area, while Marseille totaled 19. Marseille finished with one more shot than their Portuguese opponent, while Benfica held a majority of the possession. The total expected goals was 1.0-0.9, essentially even.

There was little to separate these two sides entering the tie for me, and Marseille’s defense is the differentiator overall. Not only have Benfica proven to be quite vulnerable in defensive transition throughout Europe, but Marseille have the second-best underlying defensive numbers in all of Ligue 1.

Benfica conceded 15.7 expected goals in the Champions League group stage, most of anyone in the competition. The issues continued into the Europa League knockout match against Toulouse in the playoff round and Marseille are excellent at playing on the break. They recently ripped apart Villarreal at home and the market is undervaluing them at home here.

Pick: Marseille ML (+130)