Europa League Predictions & Picks | Leverkusen vs Roma, Atalanta vs Marseille
Chris Ricco/Getty. Pictured: Marseille and Atalanta players.
After a thrilling pair of Champions League semifinal second legs, the Europa League will take center stage as Leverkusen vs Roma and Atalanta vs Marseille will round out the European slate for the week.
Our soccer analysts, Anthony Dabbundo and BJ Cunningham, have delivered their favorite picks for the matches.
Read on for their Europa League predictions.
Europa League Predictions
| Leverkusen Odds | -210 |
| Roma Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +340 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -156 / +128 |
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Dabbundo: Roma didn’t manage a goal in the first leg of this Europa League semifinal and their underlying attacking metrics show that the Italian side had real problems creating anything of real note in the first leg against Bayer Leverkusen. Roma played at home with their best attacking lineup and totaled just 15 penalty area touches and eight shots. The final stats saw Roma get to 1.5 expected goals, but it was misleading because 0.9 of that came in the final 10 minutes, and Roma’s biggest chance was a Tammy Abraham header in the 94th minute.
It’s especially notable because Leverkusen scored from a defensive Roma error in the 28th minute and from that point until Leverkusen’s second goal in the 73rd minute, Roma had just two shots totaling 0.25 expected goals. Roma weren't able to consistently put pressure on the Leverkusen goal when down a goal playing at home.
With Leverkusen protecting a two-goal lead, they have little incentive to be aggressive out of or in possession. The attack produced next to nothing in the second leg against West Ham while playing up two goals. The total is considerably higher for this second leg, and I think the market has overinflated the goal environment.
Roma will have most of the possession, but they’ll struggle to threaten the penalty area consistently and I’ll bet under 2.5 at +120 as a result.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+120)
| Atalanta Odds | -130 |
| Marseille Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
Cunningham: I thought Marseille were pretty good in the first leg despite the scoreline and amount of expected goals they created.
They exposed a flaw with Atalanta, which is defending in transition. Under the previous manager Gattuso, Marseille were a possession-dominant, build out of the back style team and they were pretty good at it, but they weren’t getting the results they deserved. For example, they had a stretch of eight straight draws where they won the expected goals battle in all eight matches.
Under the caretaker manager Jean-Louis Gasset, Marseille have switched to a 3-5-2 direct counterattacking team and it’s working. With the pace they have across their attacking line with the likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Iliman Ndiaye and Ismaila Sarr, it makes sense to give those three the attacking freedom to run at and in behind the opponent's back line, which they did with a lot of success against Atalanta in the first leg.
What the 5-3-2 out of possession has also done is give them more defensive solidity. Atalanta’s lone goal and best chance came from a cross pass to the middle of the pitch that Marseille left wide open, which eventually led to the Scamacca goal.
Marseille made sure for the rest of the match that didn’t happen again and Atalanta ended up with just 0.46 xG on their remaining seven shots for the match. Additionally, Atalanta ended with just 10 touches in Marseille’s penalty box.
Given how even the first leg was, I think Marseille’s price to advance is way too high at +220.
Pick: Marseille to Advance (+220)
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