Everton vs Newcastle Prediction: Premier League Picks Thursday
Tony McArdle/Getty. Pictured: Dwight McNeil.
Everton vs Newcastle Odds
| Everton Odds | +225 |
| Newcastle Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
The Premier League's midweek slate comes to a close on Thursday as Newcastle visit Merseyside to take on Everton. The Toffees picked up their first win since their 10-point deduction on Saturday in a cagey 1-0 victory at Nottingham Forest, and they return home now for consecutive matches against Newcastle and Chelsea.
Everton are two points behind Luton Town to be clear of the drop zone with the penalty included. Newcastle sit sixth entering Thursday and could get as high as fourth if the Magpies can take all three points in this match.
The total for this match has been bet down to a flat 2.5 since the open, and given the quality both attacks have shown this year, it's too low now and there's value in coming back on the over.
Here is my Everton vs Newcastle prediction.
Everton
Everton don't do much possession in build-up, and the entire attack is built around quickly getting the ball forward with vertical passing and dynamic transition play. The Toffees rank just 17th in total final third entries this season, but combine it with excellent set piece play, quality crossing volume and big scoring chances. They sit third in xG per set piece in attack, which creates a significant edge for them offensively against this Newcastle defense. The Magpies rank just 14th in xG per set piece allowed.
Everton have managed to be a league average attack despite its early season struggles due to injuries and lack of key availability. Dominic Calvert-Lewin may not go for Everton here, but they now have depth behind him and can rely on Beto to pick up the lost production from Calvert-Lewin. In the past, losing him would be more impactful than it is right now.
The Toffees rank in the top five in direct attacking speed and in the bottom five in passes per attacking sequence. They'll play through the Newcastle press by going over the top and won't waste time trying to build out from the back. If they do attempt that, they're unlikely to have success. It will result in high turnovers and quick scoring opportunities for Newcastle at the other end of the pitch.
Newcastle
Newcastle in some ways are a better version of Everton in how they approach possession. The Magpies want to sit off and wait for their chances to press, quickly win the ball, move it forward quickly and create big scoring chances. They don't have a ton of time in build-up, they don't waste time in matches with stale possession and yet they generate quality attacking output.
They rank just 10th in shots per 90, but are second in non-penalty xG per 90, first in big scoring chances and second in efficiency of turning final third possession into box touches. Like Everton, they have been extremely efficiency in attacking set piece opportunities, where they rank fifth in xG per set piece.
The Magpies have had just three league matches stay under 2.5 combined xG all season long. One came against an excellent passive low block in Brentford. The other two came in matchups with control obsessed Manchester City and Arsenal who are the two best defensive sides in the league overall.
Few teams have been able to force Newcastle out of its way of playing, and Everton is unlikely to be able to replicate those game plans given their fragile low block defending. They'll also be without excellent shot stopper Nick Pope, who will hurt their elite goal prevention unit.
Everton vs Newcastle
Prediction
Neither Everton nor Newcastle are going to waste time with stale possession in their own half. Both teams want to win the ball and get it forward as quickly as possible. The midfield in this match will likely be bypassed as a result, and this game has the potential to look more like a basketball contest than a soccer match.
Both teams have enough attacking quality in space to exploit these holes, and Newcastle do have increased defensive uncertainty because of all of the injuries right now. As a result, I'd bet over 2.5 goals at -120 or better.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-120 or better)
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