Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (Friday, Feb. 26)
TF-Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Filip Kostic (left) and Andre Silva.
- Eintracht Frankfurt look to continue their red-hot stretch on Friday against 12th-placed Werder Bremen.
- Frankfurt have won nine of their last 10 games, moving them into the top four of the Bundesliga with a five-point cushion.
- Matt Trebby lays out why Frankfurt is good value to keep its stellar run going.
Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Odds
|Werder Bremen Odds||+310|
|Day | Time||Friday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
One of Europe’s hottest teams is in action on Friday. You guessed it: it’s Eintracht Frankfurt.
Frankfurt has catapulted itself into the top four of the Bundesliga over the past two months, and is five points clear of fifth-place Bayer Leverkusen and only seven points behind leaders Bayern Munich. That still might be an insurmountable gap, but it’s a fantastic position for a club coming off a ninth-place finish last season.
Opposing Frankfurt on Friday afternoon is Werder Bremen, who needed a playoff at the end of last season to secure its Bundesliga status. Bremen sits in 12th entering this game, five points clear of Arminia Bielefeld in 16th.
Two decades ago, Werder Bremen were fixtures in European competition, featuring in either the Champions League or Europa League every year from 2004-11. They have been in the Bundesliga every season except for one, which came back in 1980-81. The past 10 seasons, though, have featured just three finishes in the top half of the Bundesliga.
Bremen sit 15th on the season in non-penalty expected goal difference in the Bundesliga at -10.16. Since the turn of the calendar to 2021, they have just nine points from eight matches, which is right in line with their 23 from 21 on the season.
The Bremen attack has been the main reason for their struggles this season. They have scored just 24 goals this season, and their non-penalty expected goals total is just 16.65, which is the third-fewest in the Bundesliga. Bremen have conceded 31, but their 26.81 non-penalty expected goals against puts them in the top half, actually above Bayern.
Bremen’s center forwards — David Selke and American Joshua Sargent — have combined for just five goals this season in a combined 32 appearances, but the biggest difference has been Milot Rashica. The playmaker scored eight and assisted five last season, but he’s only played 11 times this season due to a rash of injuries. In those games, he hasn’t scored and has just one assist.
Bremen have only played twice in February, a 0-0 draw with Freiburg and 4-0 loss to Hoffenheim last Sunday. Prior to those fixtures was a 1-1 draw with Schalke, who are bottom of the league.
Given the lack of form and having played just twice this month, it’s tough to back Bremen against any team, especially one of the best in Europe at the moment.
Since a 3-3 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach back on Dec. 15, Eintracht Frankfurt have been the best team in the Bundesliga, winning nine of 10 games and drawing the only fixture in which they were not victorious.
There are a few ways to look at this impressive run, though, one of which is as a skeptic.
While there’s no doubting Frankfurt getting these victories is impressive, it’s worth noting that six of the nine wins during this stretch have come against the bottom-six clubs in the Bundesliga. Another came against 11th-place Hoffenheim.
One of Frankfurt’s more impressive victories was against Leverkusen, although Leverkusen was two matches into a seven-match stretch in which they lost five times.
The real test for Frankfurt came last week against the reigning European and German champions, Bayern Munich.
And Frankfurt passed with flying colors. While Bayern are not the same machine that dominated everything in their path last season and are dealing with a rash of injuries at the moment, Frankfurt’s 2-1 victory was impressive and thoroughly deserved. They won the expected goals battle, 1.91-1.55, and looked like they belonged competing with one of the world’s best teams.
There are two stars currently steering the ship for Frankfurt: striker Andre Silva and left wingback Filip Kostic.
Silva has scored 18 goals in the Bundesliga this season, including nine in his last nine appearances. He missed the game against Bayern due to injury but has resumed regular training ahead of this matchup.
Kostic, meanwhile, is a force on the left wing. He has two goals and eight assists during Frankfurt’s stellar 10-match run. He had 10 assists in the 2018-19 season and 11 in 2019-20.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Frankfurt has beaten seven of the bottom eight in the Bundesliga during their hot stretch. Let’s go ahead and back them to beat the one they haven’t thus far in 12th-place Werder Bremen.
Frankfurt’s away form throughout the entire season has been solid, only losing twice in 11 games (five wins, four draws). Given Bremen’s recent struggles and lack of activity, I’ll back Frankfurt to continue its stellar run toward a top-four finish.
Manager Adi Hutter’s side is currently -120 on BetMGM, which is the best number available. I’d try to grab Frankfurt as soon as you can, since that number is likely to go up as kickoff nears.
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt -120 (up to -130)