Fulham vs Burnley Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Wilson Odobert.
Fulham vs Burnley Odds
| Fulham Odds | -150 |
| Burnley Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
Fulham will be hosting Burnley this weekend at Craven Cottage in London. These sides have been in complete opposite form as of late, with Fulham scoring for fun as of late and Burnley struggling to gain any sort of momentum.
The Cottagers currently sit 11th in the league, but have scored 16 goals in their last five league matches, picking up 9 points in the process. Marco Silva is proving people wrong with this Fulham squad as of late and has them playing some great attacking football.
Burnley have not had the same fortune as of late. They are currently sat 19th in the league, only ahead of Sheffield United based on goal difference. Vincent Kompany has not found his time in the Premier League as easy as he did the Championship last season.
Fulham vs Burnley is not the most interesting match this week, but it is another chance to make money this weekend on the pitch.
Fulham
Since switching formation midway through the season from a 4-3-3 to more of a 4-2-3-1, Fulham have only failed to score in three matches. Those matches being against Tottenham, Manchester United and Newcastle; three of the better sides in the league.
They have been in very good form, however, they have also been a product of a lot of luck. Leno has over-performed in goal by over 3.5 goals, while the rest of the squad has over performed their xG number by 3.4 goals. These numbers are usually not sustainable over a whole season, especially without an extremely talented squad.
Their back line has stayed pretty consistent throughout the year, but their front four has changed throughout the season. The addition of Alex Iwobi in recent months has improved their attacking play massively as he is a creative machine. Iwobi already has 37 shot creating actions, third-most on this Fulham squad, despite playing far less minutes than the two above him.
In the past he has not had a good enough end product to result in many goals, however, this season he has seven goal creating actions, second-most on the team. This, along with Palhinha and Cairney breaking up play, has made Fulham a very difficult side to play against.
Burnley
Burnley have actually been playing better as of late if you look at some of the underlying metrics. They have won the xG battle in three of their last five matches in the league. They were against West Ham, Sheffield United and Wolves, so they are not extremely impressive metrics. However, if Burnley are going to compete in this league and stay up then those are the sides that they will have to start picking up some points against.
Kompany has figured out that he simply cannot try to play a beautiful brand of football with the players he has. He has pivoted to more of a 4-4-2 formation, allowing for more players to be behind the ball against stronger opposition. This has improved their defensive record in recent weeks as they have only conceded six goals in their past five matches.
This has come at a price, however, as they have not put together many chances in recent weeks. In their last five matches they have scored seven goals on just 5.3 xG. This over-performance is mainly due to the 5-0 thrashing over Sheffield United. If you take out that match then they have been abysmal when trying to create. With the players that Kompany has at his disposal, he has to prioritize how efficient they are defensively rather than creating chances as they were not doing so very well towards the beginning of the season anyway.
Fulham vs Burnley
Prediction
This is a tricky match to predict. Fulham could win this match quite easily like they did against Forest and West Ham. However, I can only see this happening if Burnley revert back to trying to play like Manchester City.
I think Kompany has learned his lesson from earlier in the season and I do not expect him to play this way. I anticipate a 4-4-2 formation for Burnley where they will sit a little further back than how Kompany would like, but it will be much more efficient.
It is slightly too risky to take both teams to not score, but I like under 2.5 goals at -105. Fulham have been on a good goal scoring run, however in their League Cup match against Everton they only managed 0.45 xG.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
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