Fulham vs Nottingham Forest Prediction | Wednesday Premier League Picks
Michael Regan/Getty. Pictured: Harry Wilson.
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Fulham Odds | +100 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +105 / -134 |
Fulham and Nottingham Forest will both hope to earn a result that helps them avoid getting dragged into a relegation scrap when they meet on Wednesday at Craven Cottage.
The Cottagers and the Trees began the match day in 14th and 15th in the table after both suffered tough defeats on the weekend. And while they started with a respective eight-point and six-point cushion, only Fulham are on pace right now to reach the 40-point threshold that guarantees survival most seasons.
Wednesday's hosts won both league meetings last season, the most recent a 2-0 triumph also in London back on Feb. 11.
Let's dive into my Fulham vs Nottingham Forest prediction.
Fulham
The pivotal question to start Fulham's second season back in the Premiership was how they would make up for the production lost by Saudi Arabia-bound striker Aleksandar Mitrovic, who hit the net 15 times in 24 league appearances during the 2022-2023 campaign.
So far, they simply haven't. While it's unfair to expect any one player to have made up for that loss in production, manager Marco Silva's strikers simply aren't doing enough.
Bobb De Cordova-Reid and Willian lead the group with three goals each. But the former has no history as a truly consistent Premier League goal-scorer (he's two shy of his EPL career high). The latter has scored two of his three goals from the penalty spot. Incoming signings Raul Jimenez and Alex Iwobi have only a goal a piece, and while they are lagging their expected goals slightly, their combined 3.5 xG total is also too low.
And yet as a collective, the Cottagers are creating chances at nearly an identical rate to the 1.21 xG per 90 minutes they averaged last season. It's just that they overachieved their xG created by nine goals last season, a feat in which Mitrovic had no small part.
Despite all that, there are signs Silva's squad are gaining some momentum going forward. They've scored three goals on three occasions in their last seven league fixtures, including their dramatic 4-3 loss at Liverpool on the weekend. And they've proven the ability to generate chances against lesser foes at home, exceeding 2.0 xG created (and scoring three goals each) in wins over Sheffield United and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Nottingham Forest
Forest's poor away form last season appears to be carrying into the new campaign, albeit with a caveat. While Steve Cooper's side have only earned four points from seven games on their travels, their itinerary has been among the most challenging you could imagine.
They've already faced the top three sides in the table (as of Monday) and six of the top 10. Their only away win came 1-0 against 12th-place Crystal Palace. While Wednesday's trip to London followed by a journey to Wolves marks a bit of a respite, the Trees' real opportunity to improve on their away totals won't come until the back end of the season when they visit Luton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley all after March 15.
What Forest share in common with Fulham is in trying to overcome a key absence in their attack. In their case, it's injured Nigerian forward Taiwo Awoniyi, who will miss two months or so after undergoing groin surgery a couple weeks ago.
And in a season-and-a-third in the top flight, the Trees' numbers with and without Awoniyi differ pretty starkly. In 24 games the striker has started, Cooper's squad has gone 9-9-6 (W-L-D) and earned a solid 1.38 points per game. In games when he's either come off the bench or failed to make the squad, those numbers drop to 3-16-9 and 0.57 ppg.
The Trees have injury concerns elsewhere as well, with center back Willy Boly's departure with a hip issue causing some uneven moments in the back in a 1-0 home loss to Everton.
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
It's tough to evaluate Forest's chances at this stage in some respects because they've played so few away matches against mid-table sides or lower. Even so, the data without Awoniyi is pretty stark.
And the pattern for Fulham is clear under Silva. His sides simply don't lose at home to teams in the bottom half of the table. And they nearly always come good on the attacking end.
They've won all three such games this season and last year posted a 6-1-3 (W-L-D) league mark against teams that finished in the bottom half. They also have scored more than two goals in nine of those 13 games.
I think there's value in the moneyline if you can find it at better than even money. If you can't, consider a team total wager on Fulham above 1.5 goals which is offering a slightly better return across the board at the moment.
You might also consider playing Fulham to score exactly twice (+260 via ESPNBet), which they did in six of their 10 matches against bottom-half finishers last season.
Pick: Fulham ML (+105 via DraftKings), Fulham over 1.5 (+112 via FanDuel)
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