Inter Milan vs Real Sociedad Odds, Prediction | Tuesday Champions League Picks

Tuesday, Dec. 12

3 p.m. ET

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Inter Milan Odds	-163
Real Sociedad Odds	+420
Draw	+375
Over / Under	2.5  -125 / +100

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Both Inter Milan and Real Sociedad have already qualified for the round of 16 in the Champions League prior to their matchup in Milan on the final day of the group stage. There's a huge difference in potential knockout stage opponent if you finish first or second in the group, though, and first place will be decided in this match on Tuesday.

Both clubs are tied on 11 points, but Real Sociedad hold the tiebreaker if this match ends in a draw based on superior goal difference. As a result, Sociedad will win the group with a win or draw, while Inter need to win as a solid home favorite to be seeded when the knockout draw is chosen on Monday, Dec. 18.

These two clubs played to a cagey 1-1 draw back on the opening day of the group play, after Sociedad led for 82 minutes of the match until they conceded a late equalizer. There's questions about how much both teams will play their best attackers, as both have rotated at points in this group stage and are in the midst of fixture pile-ups.

Read on for my Inter Milan vs Real Sociedad prediction.

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Simone Inzaghi opted to rest both Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram for Inter's road trip to Benfica two weeks ago. Inter are in the midst of a highly competitive Serie A title race with Juventus, and Inzaghi's side has a tricky away trip to Lazio in the league this coming weekend. How important is winning the group when you balance it against keeping his top players fresh and healthy?

Inzaghi could also opt to rest key defenders Benjamin Pavard, Stefan de Vrij and Denzel Dumfries, the last of which is a key part of the attack in overlapping on the wing and getting his feet into the penalty area. All three have been battling injury of late and could miss this match or only play some of it.

The attacking duo of Marko Arnautovic and Alexis Sanchez started against Benfica and aren't terrible as reserves, but both are well past their primes and will struggle to break down a high quality Real Sociedad defensive pressing system.

Inter did manage 3.1 xG in a come from behind draw with Benfica in Lisbon two weeks ago, but neither side had much to play for and the Portuguese side had been wide open at the back for most of this Champions League group. We also saw Sociedad rip apart that same porous Benfica defense in match week 4 in a 3-1 victory. A potential matchup with reserve attackers against a quality Sociedad defense should have this total closer to 2.25 than 2.5.

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Through the first five matches of the Champions League, only Manchester City and Arsenal have conceded fewer expected goals than this Real Sociedad defense. La Real have conceded three expected goals in five matches (0.6 per match). If you combine xGF and xGA across the five matches, only Lens have played lower event matches than this Sociedad team. The combined xG for both sides is just 11.0 for Sociedad matches, which is 2.2 per match.

Inter have produced the third-most xG in the group stage, but they've been awarded three penalties and more than 60% of their total output came in the two matches against Benfica.

Sociedad's defense is fourth in shots allowed per 90, top five in average shot distance allowed. They've been successfully defensively because of their ability to press from the front and keep the opponent out of dangerous areas. The defense is top six in box entries allowed, top five in box touches and final third touches allowed.

Only PSG have allowed a lower pass completion rate than Sociedad too, which shows how effective they've been at pressing. Inter are right around CL average in pass completion rate, so that should help La Real's chances of slowing down whatever attackers Inter decide to play on Tuesday.

The first leg was both clubs at near full strength (Marcus Thuram was rested) and there were just 1.8 total expected goals. Sociedad are at their best when playing out low-event matches, not taking huge risks in possession and relying on individual attacking ability to generate chances. Inter managed only six total shots and 16 attacking penalty area touches.

Because of the fixture pile-up for both clubs right now, betting the under is a bit of a free roll. You can rely on both of these solid defensive systems, but this total will crash if the key attackers are out. Even at full strength, anything under 2.5 plus money is a good bet for me.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+100 or better)