Serie A Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Juventus vs. Torino (Saturday, July 4)

Credit:

Photo credit: Marco Canoniero/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo

  • Juventus are big favorites over their rival Torino in the updated odds for Saturday's Turin Derby (11:15 a.m ET, ESPN+).
  • BJ Cunningham previews Juve-Torino and makes a case for backing Cristiano Ronaldo and company to get the job done in style on Saturday morning.

Juventus vs. Torino Odds, Picks

Juventus odds -360 [BET NOW]
Torino odds +1000 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +460 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-141/+114)
[BET NOW]
Time Saturday at 11:15 a.m. ET
TV ESPN+

Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


League-leader Juventus hosts its inner-city rival Torino in the 202nd Turin Derby. Juventus looks headed for its ninth-straight Serie A title, currently holding a four-point cushion over second-place Lazio.

A win for the Old Lady would put maximum pressure on Lazio, who play a tough AC Milan squad later in the day. Torino is in free fall at the moment and needs a result against its rival to avoid falling into a relegation battle.

Juventus

The Old Lady has been their usual dominate selves since Serie A returned. They’ve won three in a row, outscoring their opponents 9 to 1. Cristiano Ronaldo and Paulo Dybala have looked unstoppable up front, as the duo has combined for six goals and two assists since the restart.

Allianz Stadium has been a fortress for Juventus this season. The Old Lady is an almost-perfect 13-0-1 at home this season. They’ve absolutely thrashed the rest of Serie A, winning on average by 1.76 expected goals per game (2.46 xGF, 0.70 xGA). As of late, they’ve been nearly perfect defensively, allowing just 2.85 expected goals over their last six matches at home.

Juventus has been lining up in a 4-3-3 lately, and it’s the formation that best suits Ronaldo. The 4-3-3 provides plenty of options going forward, and it allows teams to combine two factors: a three-man central midfield — which can hold possession via passing triangles — and three strikers, who can press high up the field.

Juventus and Ronaldo have been very successful playing out of this formation, as shown by their +1.40 xG differential per game (2.11 xGF, 0.71 xGA) and Ronaldo’s 0.94 xG per 90 minutes over his last 10 appearances.

Torino

Il Toro is currently in a terrible run of form that dates all the way back to mid-January. Torino has lost eight of its last 10 matches and has been outscored 26 to 9.

Life on the road has not been too kind to Il Toro this season. They’re mustering only 1.14 xGF per game while allowing 1.80 xG per game; both rank in the bottom-five of Serie A. They’ve also been in poor form lately on the road, losing their last four matches as well as the expected goals battle 7.35 to 3.54.

The guys at Total Football Analysis have done a fantastic job breaking down why Torino find themselves in this bad run of form. The summary: Their three-man back line struggles against pacy, skillful players and against teams that over-commit players into the final third. Juventus checks both of those boxes.

Analysis

Given the form of both teams, I don’t see this game going any other way than Juventus blowing out its rival. Based on my model, I think the current line is dead on.

  • Juventus projected odds: -350 (77.77% win probability)
  • Torino projected odds: +1441 (6.49% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +536 (15.73% win probability)
  • Juventus projected xG: 2.35
  • Torino projected xG: 0.60

Since I have Juventus winning this game by 1.75 expected goals and the odds on Juventus -2 is +148, I think there is value on backing the home side to win in a blow-out.

Pick: Juventus -2 (+148)

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