Leganes vs. Barcelona Odds, Betting Preview: Picks and Predictions for Tuesday’s La Liga Match

Leganes at Barcelona Odds and Picks

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This is a must-win game for both of these teams for different reasons.

On one side of the coin Barcelona is trying to hold off Real Madrid for their fifth La Liga title in six years.

Leganes, on the other hand, are in the relegation zone and are three points from safety. Los Pepineros (which literally translates to “The Cucumber Growers” and is one of soccer’s best nicknames) are desperate for any type of result in this match.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Barcelona

Its been another stellar season for Lionel Messi and company, especially at Camp Nou. Barcelona are almost perfect, with 13 wins, one draw and no losses in their 14 home matches this season.

Barca have outscored their opponents, 45-12, at Camp Nou but they’ve “only” created 34 expected goals, so while they’ve been dominant at home, they’ve also been a bit fortunate.

In fact, Barcelona have outperformed their underlying metrics all season and it’s worth noting the difference between the average actual scoring differential for Barcelona games against the expected goal differential:

• Actual Goal Differential per game: +1.29
• Expected Goal Differential per game: +0.94

In their first match since the break, Barcelona blitzed 17th-place Mallorca, 4-0. but that scoreline is a bit deceiving.

Mallorca settled into the game nicely after Arturo Vidal put Barcelona ahead inside the first two minutes, but they couldn’t convert on a few decent opportunities in the first half. Predictably, Barca did what Barca does best and put Mallorca away in the second half.

The expected goals report showed the game should have been closer than the 4-0 scoreline.

Leganes

Los Pepineros deserve better this season.

Based on expected points, Leganes should be closer to 33 points rather than 23, but their poor offense has doomed them to a relegation fight. Not only are Leganes tied with Celta Vigo for the fewest goals (22) in La Liga, but their 1.05 expected goals per game is the second-worst mark in the circuit.

Los Pepineros boast an average defensive record this season and only allow 1.32 expected goals per match. Those numbers don’t jump off the page but they are better than most teams near the bottom of the table.

Leganes typically line up in one of three different formations, but no matter how they come out, they play a defense-first style of football. This is why Leganes matches only average 2.37 total expected goals.

Considering their opponent, I think you will see Los Pepineros sit back and try to turn this match into a rock fight.

Analysis

Obviously, Barcelona is very likely to win this match. The question is, by how much? Based on my model, I think the game is going to be a little close than everyone thinks:

• Barcelona projected odds: -285 (74.00% win probability)
• Leganes projected odds: +1254 (7.39%)
• Draw projected odds: +437 (18.61%)
• Barcelona projected xG: 2.09
• Leganes projected xG: 0.64

Barcelona is predictably taking most of the money for this match. At the time of writing and per The Action Network App, 96% of the dollars are on Barcelona to cover the two-goal spread.

I am going against the grain and backing Leganes to keep this game close.