Monday La Liga Odds, Pick, Predictions: Time to Fade Real Madrid vs. Granada (July 13)

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  • Real Madrid is a massive favorite at Granada on Monday afternoon, with the total at 2.5 and juiced to the over.
  • But Brad Cunningham's model thinks this match will be closer than the market indicates, especially given how good Granada has been at home against the top of the La Liga table this year.
  • Get his full analysis and Real Madrid vs. Granada pick below.

Granada vs. Real Madrid Odds

Granada odds +600 [BET NOW]
Real Madrid odds -215 [BET NOW]
Draw +340 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-137/+110) [BET NOW]
Time Monday, 4 p.m. ET
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Real Madrid are seeking their 34th La Liga title as they head to the Nuevo Los Cármenes Stadium on Monday to face Granada.

Barcelona’s 1-0 win at Real Valladolid on Saturday has now put the pressure on Real Madrid. Los Blancos’ lead could be shrunk to one or two points if they don’t hold serve on Monday afternoon.

Granada is pushing for the final Europa League spot, only three back of Getafe. A win over the league leaders could be crucial in their campaign for European football next season.

Granada

Granada has been the definition of average since the restart, going 3-3-2 in their last six matches with a +0.19 expected goal differential.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Most of Granada’s success this season has come at home, banking nine of their 14 wins there. The main reason for their success has been their defense, which is allowing just 1.01 xG per match at home.

All that focus on defense has had an impact on Granada’s offensive numbers, as they’ve averaged only 1.14 expected goals for per match.

That said, Granada has picked up their offensive play, averaging 1.72 xGF per match in their last five home matches.

El Graná have also been very competitive against the top half of the table at home, winning the expected goals battle 9.00 to 7.81 in seven matches. Granada has tools to not only compete with Real Madrid, but to beat them.

Real Madrid

Los Blancos have been perfect since the restart, winning their last eight matches, while outscoring their opponents 15-2. Real looks almost unbeatable at this point as they’ve only allowed over 1.0 expected goals in two of their last eight matches.

One of the reasons Real Madrid is sitting a top the league is their performances on the road. Los Blancos are averaging 2.00 points per match and lead La Liga in both expected goals for and against on the road. However, as of late, Los Blancos attacking players have struggled, as five of their last fifteen goals have came from defender Sergio Ramos.

In fact, Karim Benzema is the only Real Madrid attacking player that is averaging over 0.40 xG per 90 minutes since the restart.

Although they look almost unbeatable right now, I think they will have tough time at the Nuevo Los Cármenes Stadium.

Analysis

Real Madrid look like the best team in Europe at the moment, but I think their win streak will come to an end. Based on my model, I think Los Blancos are overpriced in this match:

  • Granada projected odds: +446 (18.33% win probability)
  • Real Madrid projected odds: -133 (57.04%)
  • Draw projected odds: +306 (24.63%)
  • Granada projected xG: 0.90
  • Real Madrid projected xG: 1.64

Based on those numbers, I am going to back Granada to get at least a draw from this match.

Granada +1 (+107)
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