La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Final Week of Matches

La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Final Week of Matches article feature image

Aitor Alcalde Colomer/Getty. Pictured: Ivan Alejo.

La Liga closes another season on Sunday in the final matchday of the year, with all 20 teams in action split between two kickoff times.

All six sides looking to avoid relegation will play in the later games at 3 p.m. ET, while the teams battling for the final European place up for grabs starting in the earlier slot at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Just like the final day in the Premier League, each goal should cause a chain reaction in how sides go about their business, which could lead to great in-game betting opportunities.

There is still plenty to play for in the Spanish top flight, and I’ve picked out my final three best bets of the season.

La Liga Odds & Picks

Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano

Mallorca Odds+200
Vallecano Odds+137
Over/Under2.5 (+110 / -138)
Day | TimeSunday |  12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

If you have been following along throughout the year, you know how I like to back Mallorca at home, and I think this is another spot where they are undervalued on the island.

Yes, Rayo Vallecano can still claim the qualifying spot for the Europa Conference League if results go their way, unlike the hosts. However, they have not been a good road team this season.

The last time Rayo secured a victory away from home in La Liga was back on January 30, which was nine games ago. Over this stretch, the club has posted a -4.9 xGDiff and averaged 0.67 big chances per 90 minutes, according to

This is not good form coming up against a strong Mallorca defense that has allowed less than 1 xG (0.92) and big chance (0.83) on average at home.

The defensive efforts are one of the main reasons why Mallorca have only one loss at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, while this same bet has cashed in 12 of their 18 at home this season. I just think too much is baked into the motivational factor in these odds.

Pund's Pick: Single Game Parlay – Mallorca Double Chance & Under 4 (-115)

Real Sociedad vs Sevilla

Sociedad Odds-138
Sevilla Odds+360
Over/Under2.5 (-125 / +100)
Day | TimeSunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Congratulations to Sevilla for winning the Europa League for the seventh time in their club’s history with the midweek victory over Roma on penalties. However, the victory and celebrations make this a perfect situational spot for Real Sociedad.

After having the bus tour throughout the city on Thursday, there is no way you can tell me that the visiting players will be fully focused on a meaningless game for them on the road.

It also won’t help that they are playing one of the more in-form teams in the division. Over the last six matches, no side in Spain has more points than La Real, and only Atlético Madrid have more over the previous 10 fixtures.

Sociedad have also been dominant at home since the World Cup break, boasting a +12 xGDiff and winning seven of 11 over this span.

Once you add in the fact that five of those victories were by multiple goals, I’m chasing the bigger price by taking them on the handicap of -1, but I also think the moneyline price (-138) also shows great value.

Pund's Pick: Real Sociedad -1 (+110)

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Elche vs Cádiz

Elche Odds+162
Cádiz Odds+162
Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | TimeSunday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

I couldn’t make it through the full article without a bet in one of the games involving a team fighting for survival, especially in a spot where I was surprised by the total set by the oddsmakers.

Away from home this season, only five of Cádiz’s 18 (28%) have finished with at least three goals. Only Osasuna have a lower percentage in the Spanish top flight.

The goals dry up more when they travel to a team in the bottom 10, where only one of eight has gone over this same total. The one match was all the way back in September at Celta Vigo.

Meanwhile, the same can be said in Elche’s league fixtures at home. Whenever they have faced similar opposition at Estadio Martínez Valero, this bet would have been a winning ticket in all eight matches.

A draw is all the visitors need to clinch their place in La Liga for another season. So, I expect them to sit back and play for a draw, and I don’t trust this Elche attack to break them down consistently.

Pund's Pick: Under 2.5 (-110)

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