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La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Midweek Fixtures, Including Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Midweek Fixtures, Including Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano article feature image

Eric Alonso/Getty Image. Pictured: Karim Benzema.

With three matches remaining, La Liga has races at both ends of the table, which makes this midweek slate vital to the ending of the season in Spain.

All 20 teams will be in action this week, with up to six clubs in the fight to avoid relegation and others battling for the final European places.

My best bets begin on Tuesday’s slate with a pair of matches in Real Sociedad hosting Almeria and Barcelona traveling to Real Valladolid. I close out my article with Real Madrid playing Rayo Vallecano in a fixture that will be aired live on ESPN2 on Wednesday.

Before diving into the wagers, I would be remiss not to note the troubling scenes from Real Madrid’s game at the weekend in which Vinicius Junior was subject to racist abuse. At the end of the day, these bets are in good fun, and their importance pales in comparison to far more serious issues.

La Liga Odds & Picks

Real Sociedad vs Almería

Sociedad Odds-250
Almería Odds+700
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | TimeTuesday | 1:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

There is motivation on both sides in my first pick of the week, where I believe the best play on the board is a Single Game Parlay. I like pairing a victory by the hosts with the total to go over 2 goals at +105.

Since the World Cup break, Sociedad have posted a +10.2 xGDiff at home in a stretch that includes six wins in 10 games. They have also averaged 1.65 xG and scored multiple goals in seven of those fixtures.

This makes it a great match up against an Almeria team that has a -8.2 xGDiff on the road since the break and has given up 2.09 xG per 90 minutes away from home.

In trips to top 10 sides, this same bet has cashed in eight of those nine meetings, where those opponents have also scored multiple goals in every match.

With the win moving the club one step closer to Champions League qualification, I believe will continue the hot form with another win.

Pund’s Pick: Single Game Parlay – Real Sociedad ML & Over 2 (+105)

Real Valladolid vs Barcelona

Valladolid Odds+275
Barcelona Odds-110
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | TimeTuesday | 4 p.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In my second pick of the week, it all comes down to getting a very rare price with the league champions that makes this bet appealing.

You could look back through a lot of this campaign, and you would have rarely been able to play Barcelona against a bottom 10 side at close to even money.

Yes, they have already wrapped up the title and have nothing to play for, but the shift in the odds due to motivation has gone too far here.

Against teams in the bottom half of the table on the road, Xavi’s side owns a +6.8 xGDiff, according to, and won five of eight matches.

Meanwhile, Valladolid have only picked up two victories at the José Zorrilla Stadium against top 10 teams. This is also the same that has allowed averages of 1.73 xG and 2.38 big chances in the last eight fixtures under their new manager.

I’ll take my chances at this price even if the motivational factor is more with the team in the relegation fight.

Pund’s Pick: Barcelona -0.5 (-105)

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Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Madrid Odds-154
Vallecano Odds+425
Over/Under2.5 (-163 / +130)
Day | TimeWednesday |  1:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN2
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In the nationally televised match on ESPN2, I feel the oddsmakers have shifted the odds too far due to the lack of motivation for Real Madrid, who I expect to secure another home victory.

Los Blancos have been dominant at home since the World Cup, boasting a +15.2 xGDiff and winning seven of 10 games. Meanwhile, none of the draws or losses came against the bottom 10 teams.

In fact, Madrid have beaten every club in the bottom half of the table at home this season, with seven of nine victories coming by multiple goals.

Rayo have had another difficult season on the road, losing four of their last five trips. These losses have come against lesser competition, like Elche, Cádiz and Celta Vigo.

Vinícius Jr. will be missing the match, but with his teammates coming to his support following the scenes at Valencia, I do expect a performance out of Real Madrid.

Pund’s Pick: Real Madrid -1 (+102)

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