Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid Prediction | Friday La Liga Picks
Florencia Tan Jun/Getty. Pictured: Alvaro Morata.
Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid Odds
| Las Palmas Odds | +450 |
| Atletico Madrid Odds | -143 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
La Liga action this weekend begins on Friday for a match on the Canary Islands with Las Palmas hosting Atlético Madrid at the Estadio Gran Canaria.
The newly promoted club has gotten off to a solid start in Spain’s top division, entering this match in 10th with 14 points.
Meanwhile, Atlético are one of the hottest teams in the league, winning the last six to own 25 points and just one loss on the campaign.
This has been a tricky trip for clubs this season, and I feel this could be another cagey match on the island to kick off the weekend.
Here is my Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid prediction and my Friday La Liga picks.
Las Palmas
Returning to the Spanish top flight for the first time since the 2017-18 campaign, Las Palmas are battling to stay in the division with strong home form.
Manager García Pimienta’s side has only been beaten once on the island, picking up eight of 14 points on the year at home.
The club has also been on great form lately, winning four of the last six to push up the table and out of the relegation zone.
I do worry about where the goals are going to come from with no dominant scorer, but we have seen sides avoid relegation with a great defense at home.
Atletico Madrid
Manager Diego Simeone can’t complain about the start of his team so far. Atlético are on their longest winning streak in La Liga since 2021 with a win over city rival Real Madrid in the process.
Once you add in the unbeaten record in the Champions League, Simeone’s side is playing well to open this campaign.
The key to the strong start has been the play of the attacking duo of Antoine Griezmann and Álvaro Morata, who have combined for 18 goals in all competitions.
Towards the end of last season, Simeone allowed his team to be more free-flowing and attack-minded, and with the way Griezmann is playing, you can’t blame him.
Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid
Prediction
If you are familiar with La Liga, Las Palmas are taking a similar approach at home to smaller clubs before them in Getafe and Mallorca.
Those clubs are not looking to out-score you when you visit their grounds. They are looking to sit in deep and make it tough for the opposition to score on them, which leads to some low-event matches.
So, my best bet is to take the no on both teams to score at -125 odds. I would bet this to -135.
In the five league matches on the island, this same play would have cashed in three games, with only one finishing with more than 2.5 goals.
Las Palmas are also a side that is in the bottom three in La Liga in expected goals per game and big chances per 90 minutes at home. These are the main reasons why the island side has failed to score against a team in the top half of the league table.
As for the visitors, this would have been a winning bet in all five road matches for Atlético. Los Colchoneros are also in the top three in the Spanish top flight in the fewest expected goals and big chances given up away from home.
Simeone’s team does have a big match in the Champions League on Tuesday. So, it keeps me away from playing a side in this fixture.
I’ll stick to this being a low-event match on the Canary Islands to kick off the weekend.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-125)
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