League Cup Best Bets Today | Predictions for West Ham vs Arsenal, Man United vs Newcastle (Nov. 1)
Matthew Ashton/Getty. Pictured: Fabian Schar.
We're getting ever closer to the business end of the League Cup this week, when we'll find out the eight teams that will advance to the quarterfinals.
All the Premier League's remaining entrants will play on Wednesday afternoon, including some intriguing intra-league matchups.
In London, Arsenal visit West Ham in a cup derby.
In the Northwest, Everton face Burnley as Toffees' boss Sean Dyche squares off against his former squad for the first time.
And in Manchester, United attempt to get over this weekend's derby defeat when Newcastle pay a visit.
Here are our best bets for the midweek slates.
League Cup Predictions
| West Ham Odds | +250 |
| Arsenal Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
David Moyes' West Ham are well known for playing their low block, but when the elite clubs of England find at least one goal in a visit to the London Stadium, they usually find two.
During the 2022-2023 campaign, four of the top six league finishers scored at least two on their travels to see the Hammers. So far in this league campaign, Manchester City and Newcastle have already scored twice on their visits.
The squad rotation typical of League Cup fixtures could impact the likelihood of this, but given the pieces Mikel Arteta's Arsenal have added this summer and the depth they've retained, it is probably a relatively minor factor.
And with a price slightly better than the Gunners' moneyline, the team total may be safer since the Hammers' attackers also thrive in games when they are permitted to play primarily on the counter. Just ask Arsenal themselves, as they settled for a 2-2 draw in their league meeting last year.
Pick: Arsenal team total over 1.5 (+118 via FanDuel)
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| Everton Odds | -110 |
| Burnley Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -106 / -118 |
Confidence is growing within the Everton ranks following a well-executed 1-0 league win at West Ham on the weekend, and while it's a quick turnaround to play at home on Wednesday night, manager Sean Dyche's squad is as healthy as it has been since his arrival.
Although the Toffees' troubling league form at home remains, they've at least finally earned that first home victory three matches ago over Bournemouth. And expected goals totals show that poor home form is more about bad results rather than bad play.
Burnley aren't in so optimistic a moment following a league loss at Bournemouth, in which they were outplayed and ultimately saw a 1-0 lead turn to a 2-1 defeat. And while they've taken four points on the road in league play, they have generated only 0.8 xG per 90 minutes across 10 league games, never exceeding 1.3 xG in any match.
So if the weird home/away splits are likely to regress — which the xG numbers suggest they are — then the value here is probably on the Everton moneyline. And if you're talking about Everton home wins since Dyche's takeover, there are two trends that have also held. They've all come with the total coming in at three goals or fewer, and they've all involved keeping a clean sheet.
Given the possibility for some squad rotation on both sides, I think parlaying the total makes more sense at +165 and a 37.7% implied probability.
Pick: Same-game parlay, Everton ML and under 3.5 (+165 via Barstool)
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| Man U Odds | +120 |
| Newcastle Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
Here's the list of teams that have scored two or more at Old Trafford this season: Nottingham Forest, Brighton, Galatasaray and Manchester City.
Here's the list of teams that failed to do so: Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Brentford and FC Copenhagen.
Ask yourself, which group does Newcastle United resemble?
The Magpies have their injury issues right now and are getting used to balancing European commitments with league play for the first time in a long. But they're faring better than Man United in that respect right now, and after a slow start they've proven the ability to score in bunches when provided opportunities of late.
There are several ways you might consider backing the Magpies here while Erik ten Hag's Red Devils appear to be in crisis, but at +196 odds and an implied 33.8% probability, this is my favorite. There's probably value at +150 or better.
Pick: Newcastle team total over 1.5 (+196 via FanDuel)
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