Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds, Pick: Prop Has Value in Blockbuster Match (April 8)
Marc Atkins/Getty. Pictured: Diogo Jota.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds
Liverpool Odds | +170 |
Arsenal Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +122) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-188 / +137) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Liverpool conclude a brutal scheduling week on Sunday as they return home to Anfield to host Arsenal after ugly performances at Manchester City and Chelsea. The Reds lost 4-1 at City in their worst overall performance of the season and followed it up with another dud in a goalless draw at Chelsea.
The Reds conceded more than 2 xG in that match and were fortunate to see two Chelsea goals ruled out for VAR decisions. Arsenal sit comfortably on top of the league table for now, but one or two results with dropped points for the Gunners would move Manchester City within striking distance ahead of their clash at the end of April in Manchester.
Arsenal have had no issues dispatching teams in the lower half of the table of late — the Gunners beat Fulham, Leicester, Leeds United and Crystal Palace comfortably in the last month. This road trip to Anfield will be a difficult one because Liverpool have just one home defeat all season, a +25 goal differential and a +1.03 xG differential per 90 minutes.
The Reds have major holes defensively that won't be resolved without a revamped midfield, but Liverpool should cause problems for Arsenal's regressing defense.
Liverpool Still a Solid Side
You’d expect a response from Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool after two consecutive dud performances away from home at Manchester City and Chelsea. The Reds have kept clean sheets in 7-of-10 matches in the league, but it’s a bit of a misleading statistic when you consider that the Reds have conceded 1.6 xGA per 90 since the World Cup break. The attack is third in the PL with 1.99 xG per 90 in the same time frame.
Liverpool have played in extremely high event matches against quality opposition, whether they have played well or not. Against Real Madrid in the Champions League, both teams created more than 1 xG in both legs. Liverpool smashed Manchester United 7-0, but then also looked vulnerable on set pieces and conceded more than 1.5 xG to a shorthanded Newcastle.
Klopp was forced to play with a light team on Wednesday at Chelsea, but he will have three key pieces back in the lineup on Sunday. Virgil van Dijk returned to training and is expected to start for this match. Thiago is also expected to make his return in the Liverpool midfield. The Reds were overrun at times in their last two matches and lacked real attacking output to make up for it. Mo Salah only played 26 minutes on Wednesday off the bench, but he's also expected to start and boost an attack.
These two teams rank inside the top three in the league in forcing high turnovers. Given the injuries to Arsenal's back line, Liverpool should be able to generate a few big chances off of mistakes in possession.
Arsenal Facing High-Level Test
Mikel Arteta was noncommittal about the potential status of William Saliba for this match. Takehiro Tomiaysu has been ruled out in defense, as has Eddie Nketiah in attack, but it seems more likely than not that Saliba will miss another match for the Gunners with his lower back injury.
Arsenal have conceded in three of their last four matches in the Premier League against Bournemouth, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Leeds United. Liverpool are a significant step up in attacking quality compared to them and the Gunners aren't nearly as solid without their top center back in the mix. The injuries force Rob Holding into the lineup and his inconsistent play on the ball is often targeted by opposing managers into forcing high turnovers.
The Gunners have maintained elite form and recovered from their early February blip, but the defense isn’t nearly as good as it was in the first half of the season. They have conceded 1.15 xGA per 90 since February began, which is fifth-best in the league. The attack has surged once again with the return of Gabriel Jesus, who raises the ceiling of Arsenal's ability to break down teams inside their own penalty area. They relied heavily on the wide areas to produce space and shots while Jesus was out, but his return bumps up the attacking output for sure.
Arsenal's defense has slipped to third in non-penalty xG allowed per match this season and the Gunners have only allowed nine goals from more than 13 xG on their travels this season. The market is still overvaluing this defense in general, as it has for the last month or so. Arsenal should have their way with Liverpool going forward, especially in the wide areas, but Liverpool should generate plenty of pressure and transition moments at home against the Gunners if they overcommit in their counter pressing attempts to win the ball back.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Pick
Liverpool's two biggest weaknesses defensively this season have been the wide areas and set pieces. The Gunners average the second-most xG per set piece in the Premier League and focus most of their attacking production from Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli out wide. Liverpool's attack is still producing at elite levels on the other end, and as good as Arsenal has been this season overall, the defense has conceded plenty when facing quality opposition.
The total for this match is too low at 2.5, even with the total juiced toward the over at -150. In what should be a back and forth matchup, I'm taking both teams to score to go with the over.
Pick: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 (-120 via DraftKings)
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