Liverpool vs Newcastle Odds, Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
Photo by James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Mo Salah.
Liverpool vs Newcastle Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -223 |
| Newcastle Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool will be taking on Eddie Howe's Newcastle at Anfield this Monday. Liverpool will be looking to stay atop the Premier League, while Newcastle will be looking to get back on track after a rough few weeks.
Liverpool are currently top of the league on 42 points and will see this match as a great opportunity to extend that lead. They have only lost one match this season and completely deserve to be top of the table.
Newcastle have really struggled over the past month, dropping them down to ninth in the Premier League, just one season after finishing in the top four. If they want any chance of coming in the top four again, they need to start winning matches like these.
These sides are trending in opposite directions so let's see how this match will play out and how to predict Liverpool vs Newcastle.
Liverpool
Liverpool have not been at their best all season, yet they still are top of the Premier League with just one loss. They have definitely benefitted from the rest of the top teams in the league not being at their best, but that is irrelevant when you have only lost one match all season. We have not seen the same dominant Liverpool side as when they won the league a few years ago, but when you look at their underlying metrics, they have been extremely impressive.
Klopp's men have accumulated the third-highest xG number in the league, the third-lowest xGA, the fourth-most big chances and have controlled possession like a dominant team would. They have only lost the xG battle in four matches this season in the Premier League and have created higher than 1 xG in all but two matches. Liverpool can thank Jurgen Klopp and his coaching staff for these impressive metrics this season.
Klopp and his staff knew that they would not be able to play the same way as previous years as they just do not have the personnel in the midfield to play that way. Instead, he allows Alexander-Arnold to invert into the midfield and get his midfielders forward into the attacking line. Players like Szoboszlai and Gravenberch are allowed to push forward and create almost a front five when attacking. This has allowed for Liverpool to create loads of chances throughout the season and become an offensive juggernaut.
Newcastle
Newcastle have had a disastrous month of December. They have only won two of their eight matches this month and have lost five of their last seven. During this horrible streak, Newcastle have only scored eight goals while conceding 14 in that same stretch. This has caused them to drop to ninth in the Premier League on just 29 points.
In all fairness to Eddie Howe, they have been one of the most unlucky sides in the league when it comes to their injury situation. Pope, Batman, Willock, Tonali, Anderson, Murphy, Isak, Barnes and Burn have all missed significant time to injury and suspension. This is the majority of their starting lineup, so it is no wonder they have been struggling so much, especially with the amount of matches they have had to play with still competing in the Champions League and Carabao Cup. However, there is still some blame to be put on Eddie Howe in this bad run of form.
With all of the injuries that this side has suffered, Howe has decided to keep playing the same way. Similar to Tottenham, Howe likes to play a very specific way, with his style being a high press, physical brand of football. The reason that it has not been working lately is that you need the correct personnel to be able to play this way, and Newcastle's back ups are not those type of players. If Howe tries to play this way against an elite Liverpool side then they could be in for a long 90 minutes.
Liverpool vs Newcastle
Prediction
Liverpool have been such a quality side this season, especially at Anfield. The Reds have an expected goal difference of +1.46 per 90 minutes in their nine matches at Anfield this season. This is the best xGD/90 in the league and I expect this trend to continue against a depleted Newcastle side.
Newcastle have been one of the worst sides in the league this season away from St. James Park. They have picked up just five points away from home this season, the second-lowest total in the league and I do not think that trend will change in this one, especially if Howe tries to beat Liverpool at their own game.
I love pairing a Liverpool win with over 2.5 goals in this one at -120. Not only do I see value in this, but because of how much Newcastle have been struggling and everything else going on with that squad, I do not see a way that they are able to get a result in this match.
Pick: Liverpool Win and Over 2.5 (-120 via DraftKings)
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