Liverpool vs Tottenham Predictions, Picks, Tactical Analysis | Premier League Match Preview

Sunday, May 5

11:30 a.m. ET

Peacock

Liverpool Odds	-230
Tottenham Odds	+490
Draw	+450
Over / Under	2.5 -140o / +116u

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Liverpool and Tottenham haven't quite had the seasons that they originally envisioned, but we will still be served an intriguing fixture when the two meet Sunday morning.

Tottenham is currently in fifth in the Premier League, but a win is required if it is to have any legitimate chance at a top-four position and Champions League spot next year.

Our team of soccer analysts have built a Premier League match preview that features tactical analysis, predictions and more.

Let's get into Liverpool vs Tottenham.

Anthony Dabbundo: Liverpool returns home to Anfield after four consecutive away matches in the league and in Europe for Jurgen Klopp’s penultimate home match as Liverpool manager. The Reds' season has derailed in the last month, with losses to Crystal Palace, Everton and Atalanta, and a 2-2 draw at Manchester United and at West Ham last Saturday. While not technically eliminated from the title race, Liverpool would need three wins and collapses by both Arsenal and Manchester City to win the league in Klopp’s final season.

The Reds' biggest issue has been a lack of finishing quality in and around the penalty area. They’ve hit a slump as a side at the absolute worst time, scoring just eight total goals from their last 15.6 expected goals across eight matches in all competitions (six in the Premier League). That bad finishing run has been accompanied by a poor stretch of defense overall. The Reds have allowed 9.6 xGA in that eight match stretch and conceded 11 total goals.

Fatigue certainly may being playing a factor — Liverpool is allowing more high quality chances than it was before. The Reds have really struggled to defend set pieces as well, conceding one to Everton and one to West Ham in their last two PL matches. Defensive set pieces have been an issue for both clubs in this matchup.

Both Liverpool and Spurs rank in the bottom half of the league in goals conceded from set pieces this year, and the problem could become even worse if Virgil Van Dijk is unable to play. The Dutch center back and Liverpool stalwart is facing a late fitness test to try to play in this match.

Liverpool lost two matches in 57 at Anfield in all competitions prior to its last two defeats to Atalanta and Palace. The Reds' pressing energy and intensity is often difficult to overcome on their home ground, but the version of Liverpool entering this match is certainly vulnerable to Spurs solid technical quality and passing prowess to exploit the Reds declining defense. The Reds' finishing slump won’t last forever, but the form of star forward Mohamed Salah and injury to Darwin Núñez leaves Liverpool relying elsewhere for consistent elite goal production.

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BJ Cunningham: Ange Postecoglu has brought an exciting brand of football to the new Whit Hart Lane, but with how good Tottenham has been, they've drastically over-performed and have struggled to control matches. It’s been highlighted in their bad run of form losing three straight matches to teams that have primarily hit them in transition and exposed their weakness in defending set pieces.

Because Tottenham build up in a 2-3-5 and rely solely on Mickey van de Ven and Cristian Romero to stop any transition attacks when they lose the ball, teams have been able to create a lot of chances against them on the break. Spurs had been relying pretty heavily on not only those two center backs, but also their goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario’s shot-stopping, but he has started to regress over the past month.

Tottenham in possession though has been good. Even if the ball has only found the back of the net twice over their last three matches, they have created 4.7 expected goals. The offense also looks a lot better when Richarlison is able to play up top. Heung-Min Son is an outstanding attacker, but he’s a lot better at attacking from out wide and beating defenders in 1 v 1 situations.

James Maddison is also going to be a huge key in this match for Tottenham. He is not only one of the best players in the Premier League on the ball, but is tactically intelligent on when and where to pull defenders out of position to create space for all of their other attackers. With Liverpool relentlessly counter pressing, he is going to be a big key in Tottenham’s build up.

John Olsen: I really do not know what to expect from this contest from a quality perspective.

After both teams torpedoed their chances at achieving their primary objectives this season over the past couple of weeks — Liverpool trying to win the league and Tottenham attempting to earn Champions League qualification — neither side has much to play for besides pride. Of course, Liverpool will want to send Klopp out on a high note as well.

As we saw in the reverse fixture (or at least until Curtis Jones got sent off in the 26th minute), the clash of styles between Liverpool and Tottenham is capable of creating some really compelling game dynamics. A lack of motivation could inhibit that, however.

If both sides are up for it, the Reds will aggressively press Spurs’ buildup, and Spurs won’t be shy about playing through that press. Liverpool will aim to capitalize on any high turnovers they create, and Tottenham will look to take advantage of any “faux transitions” that arise once they break the first lines of the press. Given Spurs’ frailties in defensive transitions and set pieces, Liverpool will have a few avenues to goal, especially with the counter-attacking threat of Darwin Núñez and Mohamed Salah.

One of the biggest question marks about these sides’ respective setups on Sunday will be the midfield Ange Postecoglou deploys. In my opinion, a Pape Sarr, James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski triumvirate is the best Spurs can put together in their current squad. However, Postecoglou has been reluctant to start Sarr as the deepest of the three and has also preferred Kulusevski at right wing, where he’s spent most of his Tottenham career. An added boost from moving the Swede centrally is the ability to include Richarlison in the starting lineup, who would no doubt have an extra edge as a former Everton player.

With this contest at Anfield, Liverpool automatically has the upper leg, and with Spurs currently on a downward trajectory, I have a hard time seeing this one not going in favor of the home side.

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Dabbundo: Tottenham First Half +0.5 (-110)

The total sitting at four for this match is another indication of just how high the goal scoring environment is in the Premier League right now. Tottenham will have Richarlison fit to play striker for this match, which gives them their best attacking lineup available if Postecoglou wants to play the Brazilian. Given the quality of Trent Alexander-Arnold’s set piece delivery and the major issues that both clubs have defending dead ball situations, there will be plenty of opportunities for both teams to generate chances and score goals from set pieces.

Add in the structural defensive issues for Spurs — they’re below league average in xGA conceded — and the personnel issues and recent defensive decline for Liverpool, the total at four is actually justified per my projections. I’d make this total around 3.9 and think the value lies in backing Spurs to be competitive for a result instead of touching the total.

Tottenham is in a rough patch of form themselves with three consecutive league defeats to Newcastle, Arsenal and Chelsea. But Liverpool has enough questions about the current situation involving Salah and the health of Nunez to take a chance on Spurs to be competitive in this match.

Cunningham: Tottenham Over 10.5 Shots (-110)

Tottenham are in a position where they have to win to have any hope of securing a top four finish and spot in the Champions League next year. They have to play aggressively out of possession and get into a back and forth transition match with Liverpool, which is normally a death sentence, but given the way Liverpool have been playing recently, it’s actually the best possible approach they can take.

Tottenham this season are averaging 15.4 shots per 90 minutes this season and hasn’t been held under 11 shots since their 4-0 win over Aston Villa on March 10th.

Given the situation and how this match is likely to play out, I think Tottenham’s shot total is far too low, so I like the value on them to go over 10.5 shots.