Liverpool vs. West Ham Odds, Picks | Carabao Cup Prediction

Wednesday, Dec. 20

3 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Liverpool Odds	-188
West Ham Odds	+475
Draw	+375
Over / Under	2.5 -211 / +160

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Liverpool will be hosting West Ham in the quarterfinal of the League Cup. Both sides are enjoying a solid Premier League campaign this season and will be looking to get to their first semifinal of the year.

The Reds currently sit second in the Premier League with the best goal difference in the league up to this point. They are coming off a disappointing 0-0 draw against Manchester United this past weekend.

The Hammers are currently eighth in the Premier League this season with 27 points. They are coming off a convincing 3-0 win over Wolves.

Let's get into how this match will play out and how to bet Liverpool vs West Ham.

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Liverpool have been outstanding this year as they currently sit second in the Premier League and are just one point off the top spot. They have scored the third-most goals in the league and have conceded the least in the league. Simply put, they have been dominant.

The scary part about this Liverpool side is that they have not really hit their stride yet, nor do they have a full strength squad. They have played major parts of this season without the likes of Alisson, Mac Allister, Robertson, Jota, Matip and Thiago. Klopp has had to improvise with parts of his midfield and defensive lines throughout the season.

We have seen Alexander-Arnold start to occupy the inverted fullback role that has become so popular in recent times. This has allowed for players like Gravenberch and Szoboszlai to push forward and control possession without having to worry about tracking back all the time because they know Alexander-Arnold is backing them up.

This is why Liverpool initially look vulnerable in transition, but they are able to break up the play with Alexander-Arnold, and if he is not able to, then they have Van Dijk back there as well. We shall see what lineup Klopp decides to play as they are primarily focused on the league this season, but one thing we do know is that the return of Alisson is massive for this Liverpool side.

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West Ham have consistently picked up points and have had good results all season, despite not playing their best football whatsoever. They have won seven of their last nine matches, however their xG difference over those nine matches is just +1.4. Yes, they have been performing better than their opponents, but to win almost every match with a pretty equal xG difference comes down more to luck and quality finishing.

The Hammers have been one of the most efficient teams in the league when it comes to finishing their chances. They have over-performed their xG number by 3.7 goals, the third-highest total in the league. This is mainly down to just two players on this side. Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus have been more than elite this season.

Bowen has over-performed his xG tally by 3.5 goals, while Kudus has over performed his by 3.3 goals, despite playing just 14 matches so far. The rest of this West Ham side has underperformed quite a bit in front of goal, but these two players are literally carrying this squad right now.

It is uncertain what lineup that Moyes will be playing, but what we do know is that he will be trying to play a counterattacking brand of football against an elite Liverpool side. Moyes is comfortable playing in a low-block system with eleven men behind the ball, relying on countering quickly. Depending on the side that Liverpool put out, this method could be effective if the players perform.

Again, it depends on the lineups and if both sides will be close to full-strength in this match. However, I predict that West Ham will be playing a very defensive brand of football and will try to hit Liverpool on the counter, especially if the Reds are not playing their strongest lineup.

Because of the defensive mindset of Moyes and how effective it has been against the majority of big sides, I will be taking the under in this match. Under 3.5 is around -140 at the moment and I love not only the value on this number, but the spot as well.

Moyes knows that they will not be able to beat Liverpool at their own game by going at them, therefore they will need to play a solid defensive game in order to have a chance in this one.

Pick: Under 3.5 (-140 or better)