Man City vs Arsenal Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Ryan Pierse/Getty. Pictured: Erling Haaland, Declan Rice.
Man City vs Arsenal Odds
| Man City Odds | -110 |
| Arsenal Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
A title-shifting clash will unfold on Sunday afternoon at the Etihad, as Man City and Arsenal look to squeeze three points from a key fixture.
The two clubs are separated by a point at the top of the Premier League table, with Liverpool also tied with the leading Arsenal. LFC are also playing on Sunday morning – against Brighton and Hove Albion.
Read on to see how our experts are analyzing the Man City vs Arsenal match in our latest Premier League match preview.
Manchester City
Anthony Dabbundo: Manchester City enter this match on Sunday with some fresh injury concerns, as right back Kyle Walker and defender John Stones have both been ruled out. Combine that with the lasting injury to first choice goalkeeper Ederson and now the Cityzens won’t have their best goal prevention players on the pitch for this matchup.
Pep Guardiola has multiple ways to balance his lineup given these injuries, and the most likely scenario is that Guardiola aims for a more cautious and control oriented approach. City have dominated in their hybrid 3-2-2-3 formation when everyone is fit, but it’s only been truly dominant when both Rodri and Stones are available at the base of midfield. We may see a more traditional narrow 4-2-3-1 from Guardiola here, relying on Rodri’s defensive abilities and choosing to keep the full backs in more reserved defensive roles.
This match is more of a can’t lose than a must win for both clubs, especially Arsenal. Manchester City have struggled to consistently separate when facing top sides this season as well. They have two draws against Liverpool, two losses to Aston Villa and Arsenal and three draws in three matches against Chelsea and Spurs. The Cityzens will have their full complement of attacking options available, but I do wonder if Guardiola will again choose to sit elite outlet and dribble Jeremy Doku in favor of controlling the ball more with extra bodies in central midfield.
That lineup decision will tell us a lot about how much risk Guardiola and City are willing to take on with this match. After all, City have lost just twice at home in the PL in the last three seasons. While the defense has generally been less dominant than past years, City is still conceding less than 0.65 xG on home soil in the league.
While raw expected goal differential would tell you that Arsenal have been better this season across the whole of the campaign, it’s important to note that the market is giving Manchester City a lot of respect with this pricing. The Cityzens are just -110 at home on the three way moneyline, which is the lowest price they have been since Liverpool visited the Etihad two years ago in the midst of that title race. Just last year, City closed -175 on the moneyline at home against Arsenal and cruised to a routine victory by picking on backup center back Rob Holding.
Arsenal
BJ Cunningham: Some people will question Arsenal’s offensive ability from open play and those questions will get raised if both Saka and Martinelli don’t play. But if they do, Arsenal are going to be able to do what they do best in possession, which is create chances from out wide. In the previous meeting, Saka didn’t play and Martinelli came on at halftime. Arsenal had no outlets when playing the ball long over City’s high press, which meant that they did virtually nothing in the first half.
If Arsenal are going to have a chance at creating chances in this match Saka has to play because they don’t have someone they can replace him with out wide and teams have been targeting Gvardiol and Ake out wide a lot lately, so Arsenal will most likely try to get them in 2 v 1s to create chances from out wide. Arsenal have one of the lowest percentages of their attacks coming from the middle of the pitch because their two best attacking players are out wide, so at least one of Saka or Martinelli has to play for Arsenal to have a chance at getting all three points.
While everyone will focus on the offense, there is a blatantly clear advantage for Arsenal out of possession because they are the best team in the world defending without the ball. Arsenal’s hybrid high press has been incredibly effective because of how good their center back pairing of Saliba and Gabriel is. The theory behind Arsenal’s high press is they will push everyone except their two center backs up going man to man, but they will concede space over the top and in the middle. These two are so good at recognizing when the ball goes into that area and stopping the attack right there. They did this with incredible effectiveness in the previous meeting because Manchester City took four shots for the entirety of the match.
The big game lineup for Arsenal always includes Kai Havertz in the number nine role, but his ability to drop deep in build up, along with Odegaard doing the same, causes problems because now Manchester City’s center backs are in an uncomfortable position of whether they track them forward or easily allow them to have the ball in build up. This is where Arsenal can really exploit Manchester City’s defense, which has been on a steady decline in terms of their ability to disrupt opponents buildup, ranking outside the top of the league in that category.
Manchester City vs Arsenal
Tactical Analysis
John Olsen: Given how much these two sides have changed — for better or worse — over the last 12 months, it’s difficult to use any of their recent encounters to evaluate what will happen in this colossal title tilt, and that favors the visitors.
Arsenal’s last trip to the Etihad involved Rob Holding deputizing for the injured William Saliba at center back, which completely crippled their out-of-possession strategy (as well as their title aspirations).
Whenever the visitors shifted into their man-to-man high press, Gabriel and Holding were left in a 2v2 with Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne. Unsurprisingly, City took complete advantage of that matchup en route to a 4-1 victory. With Saliba healthy and Holding at Crystal Palace, the Gunners will have a more mobile, composed and intelligent presence at the heart of their back line.
Additionally, Granit Xhaka and Ilkay Gundogan, both key cogs in their respective teams’ engine rooms a year ago, have left England. That, in large part, has resulted in Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta cycling through numerous midfield combinations and usages this campaign.
Guardiola has also dealt with an injury to De Bruyne, which limited the Belgian attacking midfielder to a second-half cameo in the Community Shield in August and ruled him out of the first Premier League meeting between Arsenal and City in October.
On top of that, Rodri was suspended for that match at the Emirates, so it’s extremely unlikely the Cityzens have a midfield comprised of Rico Lewis, Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic again on Sunday. One thing is for sure, though. Injuries to Kyle Walker and John Stones influence what team Guardiola picks, especially with regard to structure in possession and transition defense.
Arteta hadn’t worked out his preferred usage of his two big-money summer signings until after those first two clashes this season. Now in big games, he’s settled on Kai Havertz up top and Declan Rice in a hybrid left No. 8 role akin to Xhaka’s last season.
After the new year, the right side of Arsenal’s in-possession structure has also developed. The Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Ben White triumvirate has remained constant, but Odegaard’s deeper position has led to Saka becoming an even bigger threat.
In short, Arsenal haven’t looked better with and without the ball this season, and down Stones and Walker, Guardiola’s ability to both contain and attack them is constrained, even with a healthy midfield.
Man City vs Arsenal
Predictions
Dabbundo: While goal scoring is up across the entire Premier League to the point where England averages more goals per match in the top flight than Germany, these two sides have been an exception. Most of the league’s defenses have taken steps backward, and the Premier League has turned into more of a transitional back and forth contest with chances at both ends of the pitch consistently. Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola are exceptions to this, and Arteta has followed his mentor in prioritizing control of matches over the opportunities to break in transition.
So much of Arsenal’s attack is reliant on dead ball situations like set pieces and the emerging superstar of Bukayo Saka. Given that Saka isn’t 100% fit and it’s really difficult to expect many set pieces on the road at the Etihad, this match should play out in a rather low event manner.
Liverpool’s chaotic pressing and dynamic forward passing had City rattled at Anfield two weeks ago, but Arsenal and City’s matchup will more closely resemble the first meeting, in which there were 0.9 total expected goals and Gabriel Martinelli scored a late winner to break a game that seemed destined to end 0-0. I’d bet under 2.5 at even money or better.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-115)
Cunningham: Where is Manchester City’s big win this season too? Because they only have two wins against the Big Six (both against Manchester United) and they’ve had a really easy run up in the Champions League with RB Leipzig being the toughest team they’ve faced.
All of the data is pointing to the fact that Arsenal (who haven't lost a Premier League match to the Big Six) are actually on par or even better than City because of the edge they have out of possession.
So, with two key defenders likely to miss this match for Manchester City, I like the value on Arsenal +0.5 at -105.
Pick: Arsenal +0.5 (-105)
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