Man City vs Chelsea Odds, Predictions, Picks | FA Cup Match Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Nicolas Jackson and Ruben Dias.
Man City vs Chelsea Odds
| Man City Odds | -165 |
| Chelsea Odds | +390 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -190 / +134 |
Man City and Chelsea are set to clash in the premier FA Cup semifinal matchup of the slate, as the two seek redemption from struggles in their respective seasons.
Chelsea have failed to get anything going in this campaign, while City were upset by Real Madrid in the Champions League this past week.
Here is how the Action Network's soccer analysts are delivering their Man City vs Chelsea picks.
Man City
BJ Cunningham: The reason that Chelsea have drawn with City twice is because of their ability to play in transition. They scored their only goal at the Etihad targeting the left side of the pitch because Gvardiol sometimes is pushed too far up the pitch and teams have been able to get into numerical advantages over there.
Something that is pretty evident about Manchester City’s defensive transition is they aren’t as good at closing teams down, so teams that are good at playing long balls up to the attacking players can give them a lot of problems, which is why Manchester City have struggled anytime they’ve had to face good competition.
The positioning of Rodri as well getting too far up the pitch leaves Manchester City without their best ball stopper in the middle of the pitch, which means when teams can find an outlet against them, they can punish them. It basically comes down to this. If you have pace and good deep lying dribblers and playmakers, which Chelsea do, you can give City problems.
There is also the aspect of Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne. They both asked to be subbed off at the end of regular time against Real Madrid and are listed as questionable to play in this match. Haaland was pretty quiet over both legs against Real Madrid and has been in a bit of a slump, scoring only one non-penalty goal in his last five six appearances.
Chelsea
Anthony Dabbundo: Chelsea had one of their most complete performances of the season in a 6-0 drubbing of Everton on Monday at Stamford Bridge. The Blues' biggest problem last season under their various managers was an inability to consistently score goals. This season, that issue has flipped. Chelsea have scored 19 goals in their last six matches across all competitions and haven't lost in the Premier League since a 4-2 defeat to Wolves on Feb. 4.
The problem for Chelsea is now keeping goals out. The Blues conceded in stoppage time to both 10-man Burnley and Sheffield United to drop points in both matches. They squandered a 2-0 lead against Manchester United and were minutes away from losing that match at home before some late goalscoring heroics. Chelsea have played 10 league matches since the January EPL break. They’ve conceded at least 1.5 expected goals in eight of those 10 matches and let in multiple goals in seven.
Cole Palmer is now the joint top scorer in the PL, which is one of the most shocking developments of the entire season. It’s a perfect storm of breakout production, hot finishing and penalty goals. Nine of Palmer’s 20 goals have come from the spot, and he’s also scored 11 non-penalty goals from 7.9 NPxG, per FBref.com. Palmer isn’t just adding his goals though — he’s averaging 0.70 NPxG + xA per 90 minutes. When you combine him with the quality chance production of Nicolas Jackson and it almost doesn’t matter who the third Chelsea forward is.
The third spot in the Chelsea attack has been a rotating place for months now, but Chelsea are still producing two expected goals per match since the New Year. The defensive issues still need to be sorted out, but the Blues have proven they can create chances both on the break and against lower defensive blocks.
Chelsea scored four on City at Stamford Bridge and then produced 1.5 xG and could have scored multiple at the Etihad in February. Their attack will threaten City on Saturday and they’ll need goals to keep up in this matchup.
Man City vs Chelsea
Tactical Analysis
The last time I wrote about Chelsea in one of these previews, I referred to them as The Cole Palmer Show.
That moniker is even more fitting now, as Palmer has recorded eight goal contributions since, including a four-goal display against Everton last time out. Everything positive for Mauricio Pochettino’s side flows through the ex-Manchester City academy product.
Both of the previous two encounters this season between these two clubs finished in draws, mainly because City’s rest defense hasn’t been up to the usual standard this year. Ruben Dias, despite his reputation, has been especially error-prone, and Rodri struggles mightily against any semblance of “pace and power” in transitions. City hold the advantage in virtually every other aspect of this match, but Chelsea’s counterattacks — via Palmer and friends — have the potential to be the great equalizer.
Unlike Chelsea, whose starting lineup and tactics are basically already determined at this point in time, Pep Guardiola’s side could take up a number of different appearances. After playing 120 minutes against Real Madrid on Wednesday, it seems unlikely Kyle Walker and Josko Gvardiol will start again, especially with John Stones and Nathan Ake available. Erling Haaland’s availability is up in the air, and when Guardiola doesn’t have a recognized center forward in the team — Julian Alvarez is somewhere between a No. 9 and No. 10 — things tend to get “weird.”
Of course, no matter what Guardiola decides to do, the basic principles will remain the same. There will be two wingers high and wide, two players occupying the half-spaces, domination of ball and territory and an intent to de-compact Chelsea’s fragile block and attack gaps that open centrally. City haven’t had any issues creating chances in those previous two clashes, recording 2.5-plus xG in both, but converting them is another story.
All in all, City should be and are the favorites, although not as strong as previous iterations of this team would be.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea
Betting Pick & Prediction
Betting market analysis, pick recommendation and strike prices to operationalize the strength of your conviction.
Dabbundo: Over 3
These two teams met at the Etihad in February and the total closed 3.5. Although that match ended in a 1-1 draw, there were 3.9 expected goals created and it took multiple point blank misses from both teams to stay under the total. Although the market may be a bit deflated because it’s an FA Cup semifinal, a flat three is an overcorrection and there is value on the over.
Chelsea are conceding 1.8 xGA per match since 2024 began in the Premier League. It’s a solidly below average defense overall that is consistently allowing multiple goals and that’s not going to change even if Manchester City are dealing with some fitness concerns to their top attackers. The Blues were able to find a ton of space attacking in behind Manchester City’s defensive line, but there’s little faith in them holding up against City’s waves of second half attacks if City is tied or losing late.
Cunningham: Chelsea +1 (-113 via bet365)
Manchester City’s only win versus a Big Six club this season has come on the road against Spurs in the FA Cup, which isn’t just an anomaly, it’s the reality of them not being an elite side out of possession anymore.
With the pace and technical ability Chelsea have, they can absolutely give City problems in transition like they did in the previous two meetings when they created a combined 4.3 expected goals. Cole Palmer’s ability to drop deeper in build up and pull defenders out of position will create space for Chelsea’s wingers to be able to get in behind and create chances.
I only have Manchester City projected at -133 on a neutral field, so I love the value on Chelsea +1 at -113.
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