Man City vs Liverpool Prediction | Saturday Premier League Picks
Will Taylor/Getty. Pictured: Ibrahima Konate, Jack Grealish.
Man City vs Liverpool Odds
| Man City Odds | -138 |
| Liverpool Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +150 |
The top two teams in the Premier League title odds will face off on Saturday in the first match after the international break. Liverpool and Man City were the dominant two teams in the English top flight in the recent past until last season when the Reds stumbled, but Liverpool's rejuvenated squad has them as the second-betting favorite to win the league and the likeliest to end City's attempt at a third straight league title.
There's just one point that separates these two teams, and both teams enter this match with some important injury news to monitor leading up to the matchup. Liverpool had to play without most of their first choice midfield against Brentford two weeks ago, but three of Jurgen Klopp's top four midfield options are expected to return for selection. Manchester City has some midfield questions to answer, and Pep Guardiola said on Friday that star striker Erling Haaland trained with some discomfort on Thursday and that he's not at 100% right now.
Here is how I'm betting Man City vs Liverpool.
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Man City
Guardiola said that Haaland is fit and available for Saturday, but that the striker is still dealing with an ankle issue that has flared up in recent weeks. Given how well Haaland played against Chelsea two weeks ago and Guardiola's history of over-exaggerating the injury situation at his club, it would be a real surprise if Haaland wasn't close to his best to start the game on Saturday.
Mateo Kovacic has already been ruled out ahead of this match, and Matheus Nunes is unlikely to feature. Ederson and Nathan Ake both have issues during the international break and are all listed as 50-50 to play, per premierinjuries.com. The Cityzens really struggled to keep control of the match against Chelsea, as the Blues were extremely effective at playing through City's press and creating transition opportunities to run at the Manchester City backline with Cole Palmer and Raheem Sterling especially.
Liverpool are the best attacking transition team in the world right now and Manchester City will prefer this match not become particularly stretched and open.
Manchester City usually play one or two of those matches a year — see last year's 3-3 draw with Newcastle — and then Guardiola adjusts to make his squad more control oriented and they emerge again as the best defensive team in the league. It's not clear that Manchester City have the midfield right now to exert that level of control. The expected midfield pair of Bernando Silva and Rodri, along with Phil Foden, is not their best control-oriented lineup.
Liverpool
Liverpool didn't have Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch or Curtis Jones in the win against Brentford, and the result was 16 total shots conceded at home and 1.6 xGA. The Reds struggled to keep control in the midfield and even though they won 3-0, the Reds need their first choice midfield back.
Based on Klopp's comments, Gravenberch and Jones will be fit. Mac Allister will start in the defensive midfield as he returns from suspension, and both Joe Gomez and Ibrahima Konate are expected to start in the backline. The Reds are without Andy Robertson and potentially Kostas Tsimikas, so Gomez's ability to defend in wide areas is sure to be tested.
The biggest problem in evaluating Liverpool this season is that so many of their biggest matches have been skewed by red cards. The trips to both Tottenham and Newcastle saw them down a player early on, and they had to play a more defensive style and were out-created as a result. Liverpool have a +1.37 xG difference per 90 minutes this season when playing at full strength 11-on-11, which is second in the league and only marginally behind Manchester City at +1.45.
Liverpool have dropped points in four different away matches out of six this year, but remember that the loss to Spurs should not have happened if not for a VAR issue, and the draw with Luton Town was one of the flukier results of the year by xG and finishing variance.
Man City vs Liverpool
Prediction
My projections have Manchester City as a marginally better team than Liverpool because their defense is still multiple ticks better. City will try to dial back the aggression and press here after what happened two weeks ago at Stamford Bridge, but the personnel available to Guardiola right now probably makes his best option to try to outscore Liverpool.
The Reds have been the league's best attack this year with 2.49 xG per 90 produced in 11v11 situations. Manchester City isn't far behind them at 2.35 xG per match. The injuries to the City midfield level the playing field a bit here and thus I'm grabbing a draw at +300 or better. If Liverpool +0.5 drifts up north of +130, I'd also bet that for this critical PL tilt on Saturday.
Pick: Draw (+300 or better)
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