Man City vs Sevilla Odds, Picks, Prediction | UEFA Super Cup Preview
Robbie Jay Barratt/Getty. Pictured: Pep Guardiola and Erling Haaland.
Man City vs Sevilla Odds
|Man City Odds||-275|
|Over / Under|
-150 / +120
The winners of both the Champions League and Europa League from last season are set to face off in Greece on Wednesday as treble winners Manchester City take on Sevilla in the UEFA Super Cup.
These two sides met twice in the group stage of the Champions League last season, which ended with 4-0 and 3-1 victories for the English side. City knocked Sevilla out of the competition with a third place group finish, and then Sevilla went on to win Europe's secondary competition in a penalty shootout over Roma in May.
Sevilla lost its opener in La Liga at home to Valencia on Friday. Manchester City cruised to a routine 3-0 victory at Burnley to open its Premier League title defense. Erling Haaland scored twice in that match, but Kevin De Bruyne left injured and is now set to miss 3-4 months.
Manchester City are set to welcome back multiple fit defenders into the fold. The loss of De Bruyne leaves them a bit thin in the attacking midfielder, until they're able to bring in reinforcements through the transfer window.
Read on for my Man City vs Sevilla pick and preview.
Manchester City sold Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez in the summer and haven't yet replaced either at this point. Now with De Bruyne out, that places a lot of pressure onto Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez to produce in front of Haaland. De Bruyne's passing value won't be easily replaced — the world class midfielder had three passes and two crosses completed into the penalty area in the opening 22 minutes before he went off injured.
His likely replacement is Mateo Kovacic, who is more of a ball retainer and carrier than a forward passer. City are also expected to add two top defenders, Josko Gvardiol and John Stones into the lineup. Stones can provide some progressive passing additions from his central defensive midfielder role, but City relied so heavily on the front four to produce all of the attack last year and now two of them are missing in Mahrez and De Bruyne. Bernardo Silva is also sick and expected to miss this match on Wednesday.
Haaland is so good at finishing that he breaks the standard on finishing over xG sustainability, but even he isn't going to finish two of every four shots all year like he did against Burnley on Friday. The City attack is shorthanded at the moment and I'll look to play unders against them as a result. Pep Guardiola is linked with multiple attacking replacements — Lucas Paqueta and Jeremy Doku to name a few — because he can see what is clear right now. The Cityzens are hoping to skate by for now, but they had just the eighth most passes into the penalty area and fifth fewest carries into the box in the opening PL match week.
Sevilla had an excellent run of form under José Luis Mendilibar to move out of the relegation battle in La Liga and claim yet another Europa League trophy. However, the Spanish side still had a quite mediocre underlying profile for the season in Spain and made no squad overhaul to change that entering the new year. Even if you take the rosiest picture of underlying stats under Mendilibar, they were not playing at a top four level at the end of the season.
For the year, Sevilla had a negative xG difference. The club finished 11th in Spain in xG produced and the second half of the season, they never had a rolling stretch that was better than sixth at producing chances. Youssef En-Nesyri had a solid opening game for Sevilla with four shots and a goal against Valencia, but the team failed to provide any secondary production.
They are still a slow build up team at their best, and they just don't get that kind of time on the ball against a club as dominant as Manchester City. The Cityzens dominated them twice last year as a result and while Sevilla's defense has stabilized since the fall under Julen Lopategui, it's a mediocre Spanish side that isn't close to City's level.
Man City vs Sevilla
Betting Pick & Prediction
Any time you're betting an under against Manchester City and Haaland, it's a hold your nose situation. But given Sevilla's attacking limitations in this matchup, City's returning defenders and the loss of De Bruyne, the total is too high at under 2.5 (+120).
I expect classic tournament Sevilla to set up very defensively and frustrate City. The Cityzens will likely find a breakthrough and win this match, but the attacking ball progression machine is missing too many pieces for City to run up the score.