Man United vs Aston Villa Prediction | Tuesday Premier League Picks
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Douglas Luiz.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa Odds
| Man United Odds | +160 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Boxing Day concludes on Monday with a high profile matchup between Aston Villa and Manchester United. The Villans suffered a 1-1 home set back against Sheffield United on Friday to relinquish their chance to be top of the table at Christmas, and they're a tossup in this matchup against the struggling Red Devils. Manchester United lost early Saturday, 2-0 to West Ham, raising further questions about manager Erik ten Hag's job security.
United erased any goodwill it had built up in its 0-0 road draw at Anfield in a rivalry matchup with Liverpool with Saturday's loss to the Hammers, and they'll return home to face a Villa side that has struggled away from Villa Park this year.
Here is my pick for Man United vs Aston Villa and how I'm betting the fixture.
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Man United
No team in the entire Premier League has underperformed their xG in attack more than Manchester United. The Red Devils have scored just 18 league goals, and only Luton Town and Sheffield United have scored fewer this year. They've created 27.2 xG per FBref.com, which is 11th-best in the league. You'd expect United to have scored considerably more than they have at this point in the year, and you'd also expect them to have conceded a lot more too. The Red Devils have over-performed defensively more than every other team in the league.
More than half of the defensive over-performance has been the elite shot stopping of goalkeeper Andre Onana (PL only), while the rest is some poor opponent finishing against them (see Liverpool match, for example). As a result, United matches have had 41 total goals from 18 matches — 2.27 per match — despite xG suggesting there should be 3.18 goals per game in their matches.
There's some positive regression coming for the Red Devils attack, including Rasmus Hojlund. He has yet to score in the Premier League, but he's producing at an 0.29 xG per 90 clip in the league. That's not good as a whole, but you'd expect him to score a few goals at this point. As poor as Antony has been on the wing, he's also badly under-performing his xG with no goals this year.
You'd expect a dead cat bounce at some point for the United attack, and Villa are going to give Bruno Fernandes time on the ball and space to pick out passes in behind to runners. Villa's defense doesn't concede many shots, but they do allow a bunch of big scoring chances.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa won their last away match in the league, but the performance didn't inspire much confidence about their ability to get results away from home. The Villans were down 1-0 at Brentford and struggled to create any real scoring chances until Ben Mee's rash red card challenge opened the door for Villa to score two late goals and win the match.
Villa's xG difference on their travels this year are 11th-best in the league and in the red. They've conceded 14.7 xGA in nine league matches away from home. The delta between their home and away xG difference is second biggest in the league, only to Liverpool's.
The loss of ball winner Boubacar Kamara didn't really matter against a Sheffield United team that bunkered in for the whole match, but his absence due to suspension could certainly play a role here. The potential absence of Pau Torres also hurts the Villans in their build-up play. Unai Emery has built a team to play with the ball in possession, not a team to offer a ton of ball winning. Kamara is the only plus-ball winner and defensive first player in the normal XI, and his red card against Brentford means he will also miss this match.
With United potentially starting Christian Eriksen in midfield as well, they'll need ball stoppers to prevent the Red Devils from getting too much time on the ball to pick out passes and there's no natural replacement for Kamara on the Villa bench.
Man United vs Aston Villa
Prediction
Given how much the Manchester United midfield will be tilted toward attack with Scott McTominay, Fernandes and Eriksen all starting potentially, it will be hard to envision this match not being extremely wide open and full of chances. United have struggled for goals of late — they haven't scored in four matches — but Villa will present opportunities on the break away from home.
Aston Villa's defense doesn't project nearly as well without Kamara breaking up the play, but United's defense remains in the bottom five and can be had.
Pick: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 (-130)
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