Man United vs Bayern Odds, Prediction | Champions League Match Preview

Tuesday, Dec. 12

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Man United Odds	+175
Bayern Munich Odds	+125
Draw	+320
Over / Under	3.5  +120 / -150

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Bayern Munich clinched first place in Group A after just four matches and four victories, and the German side has a chance to play spoiler for Manchester United on the final day of group play in the Champions League. Bayern haven't lost a group stage match since September 2017 when they lost to PSG. Now they're a small favorite on the road against a Manchester United squad that has middling underlying numbers in the Premier League.

The market is baking in the huge motivational edge for Manchester United and the potential for Bayern to rest some of their top stars. Manchester United's path to advancing is slim at this point. Not only do the Red Devils need to beat Bayern, but they need the other Group A match between Galatasaray and Copenhagen to end in a draw.

United still could make a Europa League run if it finished third in the group, but that would require them getting at least a point (and maybe more) in this match. Bayern have been in this spot many times in years past and expecting them to lay down or not care is usually a mistake.

Here is my Man United vs Bayern prediction in my latest Champions League match preview.

Manchester United hit the highest high of the season with the 2-1 home win against Chelsea on Wednesday. The Red Devils produced four expected goals and completely dominated a Chelsea team that has gotten a lot of market love in the last few months.

Despite that win, the goodwill and good vibes didn't last long. United lost 3-0 at home to Bournemouth in the league on Saturday and conceded inside the opening five minutes. Now, Erik ten Hag is on the verge of going out of Europe entirely with a loss on Tuesday. His squad has been hit with illness just days before the match.

Both Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial missed training due to illness and are in serious doubt to play this match. There's not only the risk that they could miss, but that other players within the already thin first team could fall ill between now and kickoff on Tuesday.

Victor Lindelof missed the Saturday match and is also a doubt to start in the United defense. Regardless of who starts, the Red Devils have been a disaster defensively all year. They haven't played Liverpool or Aston Villa yet, and even with a relatively friendly schedule, they rank 15th in non-penalty xG allowed, 16th in shots and 12th in big scoring chances conceded.

Their pressing numbers are quite mediocre. They can create high turnovers but are often quickly played through and exposed in midfield. The lack of ball winning in midfield leaves them quite vulnerable in transition defense and Bayern excels in these areas.

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Bayern have clinched the group title prior to the final day in each of the last four Champions League campaigns. That hasn't stopped them from winning all four matches. Last year, Bayern were at home against Inter and they still went for it by starting Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Joshua Kimmich, Marcel Sabitzer, Kingsley Coman and Sadio Mane. Two years ago, the German champions faced Barcelona on the final day. 

Bayern started Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Muller, Leroy Sane, Coman, Jamal Musiala and Corentin Tolisso. Some rotation in the midfield, but all of the key attackers at the time featured in a 3-0 pasting of a flawed Barca defense. Three years ago, Bayern beat Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0. In 2020, Bayern beat Spurs 3-1 on the final day. 

Time and time again, they've had the opportunity to lay down and roll over and not care. It's not in the Bayern DNA. After Bayern lost their first Bundesliga match of the season 5-1 to Eintracht Frankfurt in an embarrassing showing, it's even less likely that Thomas Tuchel will want to risk losing this match by resting players.

Bayern are already out of the German Cup, so they didn't play in the midweek last week. They are the relatively more rested side when you compare them to Manchester United, who are dealing with both injuries and illness.

The market is downgrading Bayern so much for perceived lack of motivation and potential rotation that this market is nearly the exact same price that Chelsea closed at Manchester United on Wednesday. The Bavarians have shown time and time again they'll play a strong team and give it a go. As United has to go for it at home, the Red Devils will leave gaps in transition for Bayern to exploit at the other end.

Last time Bayern lost a match to Saarbrucken earlier this year, they played a similarly flawed defensive side in Borussia Dortmund and went up 2-0 in 10 minutes. Expect an early response from Bayern. If the market moves back closer to a pick'em, I'd bet Bayern draw no bet at -130 or better too.

Picks: Bayern Munich First Half Team Total Over 0.5 (-130), Bayern draw no bet (-130 or better)