Man United vs Chelsea Prediction | Premier League Pick & Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford.
Man United vs Chelsea Odds
| Man United Odds | +187 |
| Chelsea Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Chelsea will be travelling to Old Trafford in a heavyweight clash with Man United this week. These two clubs have probably been the most heavily scrutinized in the world over the past couple years. This being due to the underperformance in recent time, but also the monumental status of these two English giants.
Manchester United currently sit seventh in the table with 24 points to their name so far. While this may look like they are having a solid season, they have a -1 goal difference and are playing some very uninspiring football. They are coming off a 1-0 loss this weekend to a depleted Newcastle side and to make matters worse, they are likely not going to progress out of their Champions League group.
Chelsea have had a strange season; they sit 10th in the league with 19 points and a +3 goal difference. This seems like a down year for Chelsea, yet they have played arguably some of the best football in the entire league.
Let’s see how this battle of two of the biggest clubs in the world plays out and how to bet Man United vs Chelsea.
Man United
Manchester United have been under the spotlight through the entirety of the season, for good reason. They went into this season seen as candidates for the title by some, and while they have been getting results, their football has been anything but that of a champion.
They have only scored 16 goals in their 14 matches this season, lower than the likes of Wolves, Brentford and West Ham. They have also conceded 23.7 xG so far, more than Forest, Brighton and Burnley. For a team with the history and status of Manchester United, these numbers are unacceptable.
United have been unlucky with injuries to some of their key players, such as Casemiro, Mount and Lisandro Martinez, but a team with title aspirations should have the squad depth to neutralize some injuries. United’s recruitment has been mediocre at best, and they may not be a poorly coached side, but Ten Hag does not have the right personnel to play the way he wants to.
When they are out of possession, their forward line and midfield press very high, while their backline sits back with players like Dalot and Shaw tuck in closer to the center backs. This creates a major gap behind the midfield where teams can counter quick and only have to beat the makeshift back line that United have been playing with. We saw this in the first half against Everton, where players like McNeil and Doucoure would pick up the ball and have 20-30 yards of room to run with it.
Ten Hag cannot allow this to happen against this Chelsea side whose players are abundant in pace and directness, like Mudryk and Jackson. The potential return of Christopher Nkunku may also prove difficult for this United side to deal with.
Chelsea
If you look at some of the underlying numbers, Chelsea have been dominant this year and deserve to be higher in the table than they should be. They have created the fourth-highest xG tally in the league with 27.8, and up until recently the Blues were not able to convert many of these chances.
They are still underperforming their xG tally by almost three goals, but we have seen the positive regression over the past few weeks. They are also underperforming their xGA tally. Part of the reason being Robert Sanchez, who has not been able to keep the ball out of the net as frequently as other goalies have.
It has also not helped with the number of injuries that Chelsea have suffered throughout the season. They have gone the first three months without Christopher Nkunku and Wesley Fofana has been sidelined for months, Chillwell has missed time, Chukwuemeka has missed time and now Conor Gallagher is suspended for this match. Pochettino has this Chelsea side playing better football than they have in a few years, but it is difficult for any team to find a great run of form with such a rotating squad.
One thing that has been a constant over the past month is that Chelsea have been creating chances and scoring goals. Since the start of October, Chelsea have only failed to score in one match, and over their last five matches they have scored 2, 4, 4, 1 and 3. This flurry of goals also comes against some of the best sides in the league, which shows that they have some serious firepower up front.
Man United vs Chelsea
Prediction
United and Chelsea have not had the most eventful matches throughout the last few seasons. Over their last six matches, five of them have been 1-1 draws. But this edition of United vs. Chelsea seems to be a little different.
Both sides will be desperate for all three points. United need to defend Old Trafford, but with the injuries they have and uncertainty around tactics, I cannot back them to win this match. I would certainly be more inclined to bet on Chelsea in this one, but it is hard to back the away side in a top six matchup in the Premier League.
Therefore, I will be taking over 2.5 goals at -145 via Caesars. I will also be sprinkling the draw at +265 via DraftKings.
Picks: Over 2.5 Goals (-145 via Caesars) | Sprinkle Draw (+265 via DraftKings)
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