Sharp Money On Manchester City to Beat Tottenham in Champions League Quarterfinal

Tottenham earned a surprise win in the Champions League Quarterfinal first leg, 1-0, despite Manchester City controlling most of the play. Sharp money took Spurs and under (2.5) in the opening leg and it paid off nicely.

Teams winning the first leg at home by a 1-0 scoreline have gone on to advance 22 of 32 times (69%) in Champions League history, but the betting market says Man City have the advantage in this situation.

Manchester City vs. Tottenham Odds to Advance

Tottenham opened +350 to advance and are still +140 underdogs despite a 1-0 aggregate lead heading into the second leg.

Man City were -440 favorites to advance before the first leg and are still the betting favorites at -160 to overcome the one-goal deficit.

Injuries

Tottenham: M Dele Allie (questionable), F/M Erik Lamela (questionable), F Harry Kane (out), D Eric Dier (out), D Serge Aurier (out), M Harry Winks (out)

Manchester City: M Fernandinho (questionable), GK Claudio Bravo (out)

Second Leg Betting Breakdown

Smart money was on Tottenham and the under for the first leg, but bettors have been going the opposite direction for the second leg.

Manchester City and over (3) have attracted all the smart action for Wednesday's match that will send either side to the semifinal against Ajax.

The market opened Man City -260 immediately following their 1-0 loss in the first leg at Tottenham last week, and early sharp bets quickly came in on the favorites. An influx of wagers drove the price up to -330 within 24 hours, and since then the line has steadied in that range.

This match may have seen different betting patterns if Harry Kane and Dele Alli weren't injured, although winning on the road at Manchester City is difficult for any healthy team. Spurs haven't done it in over three years, losing six and drawing once since their last victory at Etihad Stadium.

Tottenham could gain a big advantage by scoring an early goal and putting the pressure on, and Man City will have to be careful in the opening stages. Barcelona got away with a poor 10 minutes against Manchester United on Tuesday and conceding one could have changed the complexion of that match. They didn't, and Messi and company then rolled to a decisive 3-0 home win.

If Man City stay alert from the start, it could be the same type of outcome on Wednesday.

In the totals market, we've seen a considerable shift toward the over (3) and, on average, sportsbooks have moved the juice from -112 to -130. There are some offering 3.25 as an alternative and a few have decided to list 3.5 with plus-money odds on the over.

At those odds and prices, I don't love the over even though I expect Manchester City to score at least two goals. Pep Guardiola's crew has generated enough chances to put teams away but the finishing just hasn't been there.

Another thing that's keeping me away from the over is how strong City are defensively. Their accumulative xGA in the last 10 games is just 3.1, an average of just 0.31 goals per match. No Kane for Tottenham certainly helps, too.

Look for Manchester City to be on the front foot and avoid any possibility of extra time with a multi-goal win in regulation.

Value Play

• Manchester City -1.5 (-110)

Updated Champions League Title Odds