Wednesday English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Manchester City vs. Bournemouth (July 15)

Credit:

Victoria Haydn/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Raheem Sterling, Bernardo

  • Manchester City is a massive favorite over Bournemouth in English Premier League action on Wednesday, with the betting market giving it a nearly 88% chance to win outright.
  • Bournemouth won its first EPL match in five months this past weekend, while Man City's offense continues to roll.
  • Get our Man City vs. Bournemouth pick and model prediction below.

Premier League: Bournemouth at Man City Odds

Bournemouth odds +1600 [BET NOW]
Man City Odds -715 [BET NOW]
Draw +800 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+112/-136) [BET NOW]
Time Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports Gold/Peacock

Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Manchester City got some huge news on Monday when the Court of Arbitration in Sport overturned their two-year Champions League ban. The ruling shouldn’t have any impact on the field, but it’s a big break for Pep Guardiola’s side.

Now City can focus on wrapping up second place in the Premier League with a win over relegation-threatened Bournemouth on Wednesday.

The Cherries are three points from safety and will need to get something from this game to boost their chances for survival.

Manchester City

City’s offense looks unstoppable at the moment. The Cityzens are coming off back-to-back 5-0 wins and are creating 3.72 expected goals per match over their last four contests. Raheem Sterling has been the form man of late, scoring five goals in his last four appearances.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


City have been especially scary at home, where they’ve won their last four matches by a combined score of 19-0. In fact, Manchester City haven’t conceded a goal at The Etihad since Jan. 18.

Man City have an outstanding home record against the bottom half of the table. Pep’s men are have a +2.42 expected goals differential (3.16 xGF, 0.74 xGA) in eight matches against teams ranked 11-20 in the EPL.

Manchester City are no strangers to running up the score, as 13 of their 23 wins this season have come by 3+ goals.

Bournemouth

The Cherries were able to keep their season alive with a 4-1 upset over Leicester City on Sunday. It was Bournemouth’s first Premier League win in over five months.

That win likely just delayed the inevitable as Bournemouth have been terrible of late and their road woes this season paint a bleak picture for Wednesday’s match. Bournemouth are currently on an eight-game road losing streak and their -7.28 xG differential (8.84 xGF, 16.12 xGA) in those matches tells you that Bournemouth have been thoroughly outplayed.

Bournemouth rank 15th in the Premier League in expected goals against, so it’s hard to trust them to slow down a red-hot Manchester City.

Analysis

It’s hard to see this match going any other way than a rout for the home team. I project the Cityzens will win the game by 2.56 expected goals, so I’ll take the +170 odds on Man City -3.

  • Manchester City projected odds: -528 (84.07% win probability)
  • Bournemouth projected odds: +1452 (6.44%)
  • Draw projected odds: +955 (9.48%)
  • Manchester City projected xG: 3.30
  • Bournemouth projected xG: 0.74
Pick: Man City -3 (+170)

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