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Man City vs Nottingham Forest Same Game Parlay Preview: Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction

Man City vs Nottingham Forest Same Game Parlay Preview: Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image
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James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City star Erling Haaland celebrates a goal.

Man City vs. Forest Odds

Man City Odds -1200
Forest Odds +2800
Draw +1200
Over/Under 3.5 (-158 / +130)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City, the heaviest favorite of this midweek Premier League slate, welcomes newcomer Nottingham Forest to Etihad Stadium for its fifth match of the season.

The Cityzens are coming off a come-from-behind victory against Crystal Palace, while the Reds dropped all three points at home against Tottenham last time out.

This meeting will mark the first clash between these clubs since December of 1995, which resulted in a 1-1 draw.

Manchester City

Perhaps completely unsurprisingly, Manchester City has looked impeccable through its opening four matches.

On the attacking end, manager Pep Guardiola’s side has generated at least 1.6 expected goals in all four games and at least two xG in three of four outings Plus, the Cityzens lead in in big scoring chances and arrive here a positive regression candidate based on that figure of 13 goals on 17 big chances.

Defensively, the defending champions have held three of four opponents at less than one xG and are tied for second league wide in big chances against, sitting only one big chance behind Arsenal for first.

By The Numbers

  • 75% — Percentage in which Manchester City has cleared 2.0+ xG in last 20 Premier League matches.
  • 70%  — Percentage in which the Cityzens have held opponent at less than 1.0 xG in their last 20 EPL contests.
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Nottingham Forest

If manager Steve Cooper’s side is to have a chance at Etihad Stadium, it will have to clean up the defense in a hurry.

In its first four fixtures against Newcastle United, West Ham United, Everton and Tottenham, Forest has allowed 8.6 xG,  which is by far the most in the English top flight. It also arrives in Manchester a negative regression candidate since it has allowed just five goals on that expected metric to date.

Cooper’s side is slightly better offensively, but it isn’t by much. Currently, Forest sits 16th league-wide in the xG table and only created four big scoring chances, which is tied for 18th in the league.

By The Numbers

  • 3 — Consecutive matches in which Forest has generated 1.0+ expected goal.
  • 19th — The Reds’ ranking in xGDiff per 90 minutes table.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

The odds don’t justify a normal selection, so I’m going to go crazy with a Same Game Parlay at big odds.

If there’s one unit that has shown itself as trustworthy over these first four matches, it’s the Nottingham Forest defense. Personally, I rate its back line as the worst in the league and think it will struggle greatly in this meeting.

Last season against the 10 worst defenses, City generated 2.72 xG per 90 minutes and cleared 2.75 xG in six of those matches. Additionally, in nine wins against those foes, the Cityzens won all but two of them by at least three goals. Thus, the first element of my parlay is Manchester City covering a big -3.5 goals on the spread.

Additionally, those eight wins saw City kept a clean sheet in five of them, so I’ll add Both Teams to Score (No) as the second leg of the parlay. A further six games cleared 4.5 goals, so I’ll add a third leg of the total going over 4.5 goals to round out this play.

All told, all three of these legs hit in three of City’s eight wins — a 38 percent clip — and lost on the hook in a fourth game.

At +560 odds for this Same Game Parlay, featuring a a 15-percent implied percentage hit, I’ll take a shot with City cruising in this matchup.

The Pick: Same Game Parlay — Manchester City -3.5 | Both Teams to Score — No | Total Over 4.5 Goals (+560)

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