Manchester United 2018-19 Betting Preview: Mourinho’s Red Devils Will Fall Short of Expectations

Jul 31, 2018 11:14 PM EDT

Manchester United 2018-19 Premier League Betting Odds

  • To Win Title: +800
  • To Be Relegated: +150000
  • Point Total: 75.5 (Over -145/Under +115)

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Manchester United are in a weird place right now. They have a lot of talent, a lot of money and a manager who has won basically everything there is to win — yet something feels off.

Jose Mourinho, the aforementioned manager, is entering his third season at Old Trafford and even though he won the Europa League and League Cup in 2016-17 and had United in second last season, it feels like this could be the year that “The Special One” wears out his welcome at the Theatre of Dreams. There is always pressure on the Manchester United manager, but Mourinho’s antics don’t help, and things could get very interesting if the Red Devils find life hard to come by in the early part of the season.

That is a distinct possibility, too, as they are still waiting for several key players (Romelu Lukaku, Paul Pogba, Jesse Lingard and Marouane Fellaini) to return from their post-World Cup holidays. Fortunately for United, their first two fixtures are winnable matches home to Leicester City and then away at Brighton, so they should be able to skirt by until a big tilt with Tottenham to close out August.

United fans will also hope that Mourinho can get his team to start playing a more entertaining style of football. Even though his players were effective last year, Mourinho’s pragmatic approach left supporters wanting more, and he will face a tough decision. Should he throw caution to the wind and let Pogba run the show, or will he continue to walk a safer path in hopes of sticking with Manchester City.

Another concern for United backers is that the Red Devils are due for some regression. Last year, Man U outpaced their expected goals on both sides of the ball by some margin.

They ended up with 68 goals, nine more than their 59.04 xG and they allowed 28 goals, which outran their xGA by 15.54. Goalkeeper David De Gea’s spectacular play was the main reason that United outpaced their metrics, so a slip in form from the Spaniard could sink Mourinho’s men.

Bet To Watch

Last year, Manchester United finished in second with 81 points but they were lucky to finish that high up the table. According to Understat, United ended the campaign with 62.33 expected points, well below their actual total. I expect some regression from United and think the play here is on the Under 75.5 points.


All odds from 5Dimes and current as of 7/30.

Credit:

Pictured: Paul Pogba

Follow Michael J. Leboff on Twitter
@TheBigLeebowski
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